Polymarket traders assign a 59% implied probability to U.S. unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and the rate edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%, signaling labor market softening amid downward revisions to prior months. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections hold steady at a 4.4% Q4 2026 unemployment rate, aligning with consensus forecasts of mid-4% stability, though risks from slowing hiring and rising underemployment loom. ADP's March private payroll gain of 62,000 hints at stabilization, but tomorrow's BLS March Employment Situation report on April 3 could catalyze shifts, with focus on job growth thresholds below 100,000 signaling recession risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$344,391 交易量
2026-01-10
5.0%
60%
5.5%
24%
6.0%
20%
7.0%
14%
10.0%
5%
$344,391 交易量
5.0%
$80,543 交易量
60%
5.5%
$179,102 交易量
24%
6.0%
$49,098 交易量
20%
7.0%
$16,466 交易量
14%
10.0%
$19,181 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 59% implied probability to U.S. unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and the rate edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%, signaling labor market softening amid downward revisions to prior months. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections hold steady at a 4.4% Q4 2026 unemployment rate, aligning with consensus forecasts of mid-4% stability, though risks from slowing hiring and rising underemployment loom. ADP's March private payroll gain of 62,000 hints at stabilization, but tomorrow's BLS March Employment Situation report on April 3 could catalyze shifts, with focus on job growth thresholds below 100,000 signaling recession risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$344,391结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders assign a 59% implied probability to U.S. unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and the rate edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%, signaling labor market softening amid downward revisions to prior months. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections hold steady at a 4.4% Q4 2026 unemployment rate, aligning with consensus forecasts of mid-4% stability, though risks from slowing hiring and rising underemployment loom. ADP's March private payroll gain of 62,000 hints at stabilization, but tomorrow's BLS March Employment Situation report on April 3 could catalyze shifts, with focus on job growth thresholds below 100,000 signaling recession risks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$344,391结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 59% implied probability to U.S. unemployment peaking at 5.0% in 2026, driven by February's unexpected nonfarm payroll decline of 92,000 jobs and the rate edging up to 4.4% from 4.3%, signaling labor market softening amid downward revisions to prior months. The Federal Reserve's March 18 projections hold steady at a 4.4% Q4 2026 unemployment rate, aligning with consensus forecasts of mid-4% stability, though risks from slowing hiring and rising underemployment loom. ADP's March private payroll gain of 62,000 hints at stabilization, but tomorrow's BLS March Employment Situation report on April 3 could catalyze shifts, with focus on job growth thresholds below 100,000 signaling recession risks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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