US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 92,000 in February 2026, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent—its highest since November 2025—and fueling trader concerns over labor market softening amid moderating growth and persistent inflation pressures. Recent low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 signal underlying resilience, but Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections pegs the rate at a median 4.4 percent by Q4 2026, aligning with IMF and private consensus forecasts clustering around 4.5–4.8 percent peaks. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price modest upside risk to 5.0 percent as the leading outcome. Key catalyst ahead: March jobs data on April 3, which could confirm rebound or deepen slowdown narratives ahead of May FOMC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$342,199 交易量
2026-01-10
5.0%
53%
5.5%
31%
6.0%
20%
7.0%
15%
10.0%
6%
$342,199 交易量
5.0%
$79,211 交易量
53%
5.5%
$178,345 交易量
31%
6.0%
$49,097 交易量
20%
7.0%
$16,436 交易量
15%
10.0%
$19,110 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 92,000 in February 2026, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent—its highest since November 2025—and fueling trader concerns over labor market softening amid moderating growth and persistent inflation pressures. Recent low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 signal underlying resilience, but Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections pegs the rate at a median 4.4 percent by Q4 2026, aligning with IMF and private consensus forecasts clustering around 4.5–4.8 percent peaks. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price modest upside risk to 5.0 percent as the leading outcome. Key catalyst ahead: March jobs data on April 3, which could confirm rebound or deepen slowdown narratives ahead of May FOMC.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$342,199结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 92,000 in February 2026, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent—its highest since November 2025—and fueling trader concerns over labor market softening amid moderating growth and persistent inflation pressures. Recent low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 signal underlying resilience, but Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections pegs the rate at a median 4.4 percent by Q4 2026, aligning with IMF and private consensus forecasts clustering around 4.5–4.8 percent peaks. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price modest upside risk to 5.0 percent as the leading outcome. Key catalyst ahead: March jobs data on April 3, which could confirm rebound or deepen slowdown narratives ahead of May FOMC.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$342,199结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 92,000 in February 2026, lifting the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent—its highest since November 2025—and fueling trader concerns over labor market softening amid moderating growth and persistent inflation pressures. Recent low weekly jobless claims near 210,000 signal underlying resilience, but Federal Reserve March Summary of Economic Projections pegs the rate at a median 4.4 percent by Q4 2026, aligning with IMF and private consensus forecasts clustering around 4.5–4.8 percent peaks. Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price modest upside risk to 5.0 percent as the leading outcome. Key catalyst ahead: March jobs data on April 3, which could confirm rebound or deepen slowdown narratives ahead of May FOMC.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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