Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data from Taipei Songshan Airport station confirming a peak of 32°C amid clear skies and a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which projected daytime maxima of 31–32°C under low humidity (around 60–70%) and minimal cloud cover, enabling efficient solar heating typical of mid-April warm spells—above the monthly average high of 27°C. Realistic challenges, such as an unforecast late-afternoon surge from urban heat island effects, are improbable given rapid evening cooling and no convective activity; final CWA daily summary expected shortly will likely affirm resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Taipei on April 15?
Highest temperature in Taipei on April 15?
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$131,925 交易量
$131,925 交易量
2026-04-15
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$131,925 交易量
$131,925 交易量
2026-04-15
25°C or below
$2,298 交易量
No
26°C
$3,307 交易量
No
27°C
$7,295 交易量
No
28°C
$8,133 交易量
No
29°C
$24,666 交易量
No
30°C
$9,081 交易量
No
31°C
$8,668 交易量
No
32°C
$23,938 交易量
Yes
33°C
$11,378 交易量
No
34°C
$16,719 交易量
No
35°C or higher
$16,442 交易量
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data from Taipei Songshan Airport station confirming a peak of 32°C amid clear skies and a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which projected daytime maxima of 31–32°C under low humidity (around 60–70%) and minimal cloud cover, enabling efficient solar heating typical of mid-April warm spells—above the monthly average high of 27°C. Realistic challenges, such as an unforecast late-afternoon surge from urban heat island effects, are improbable given rapid evening cooling and no convective activity; final CWA daily summary expected shortly will likely affirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET
交易量
$131,925结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data from Taipei Songshan Airport station confirming a peak of 32°C amid clear skies and a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which projected daytime maxima of 31–32°C under low humidity (around 60–70%) and minimal cloud cover, enabling efficient solar heating typical of mid-April warm spells—above the monthly average high of 27°C. Realistic challenges, such as an unforecast late-afternoon surge from urban heat island effects, are improbable given rapid evening cooling and no convective activity; final CWA daily summary expected shortly will likely affirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$131,925结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:22 AM ET已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Taipei today, driven by Central Weather Administration (CWA) observational data from Taipei Songshan Airport station confirming a peak of 32°C amid clear skies and a persistent subtropical high-pressure ridge. This aligns with the latest forecast model runs from ECMWF and GFS ensembles, which projected daytime maxima of 31–32°C under low humidity (around 60–70%) and minimal cloud cover, enabling efficient solar heating typical of mid-April warm spells—above the monthly average high of 27°C. Realistic challenges, such as an unforecast late-afternoon surge from urban heat island effects, are improbable given rapid evening cooling and no convective activity; final CWA daily summary expected shortly will likely affirm resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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