Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月15日旧金山气温最高？
4月15日旧金山气温最高？
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F或更低 <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 交易量
$61,980 交易量
2026-04-15
47°F或更低
否
48-49°F
否
50-51°F
否
52-53°F
否
54-55°F
否
56-57华氏度
否
58-59°F
否
60-61°F
否
62-63°F
是
64-65°F
否
66华氏度或更高
否
62-63°F 100.0%
47°F或更低 <1%
48-49°F <1%
50-51°F <1%
$61,980 交易量
$61,980 交易量
2026-04-15
47°F或更低
$1,764 交易量
否
48-49°F
$2,686 交易量
否
50-51°F
$2,912 交易量
否
52-53°F
$3,850 交易量
否
54-55°F
$4,361 交易量
否
56-57华氏度
$6,776 交易量
否
58-59°F
$6,800 交易量
否
60-61°F
$10,098 交易量
否
62-63°F
$8,143 交易量
是
64-65°F
$7,643 交易量
否
66华氏度或更高
$6,947 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET
交易量
$61,980结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$61,980结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 12:14 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 62-63°F in San Francisco on April 15, 2026, driven by verified observational data from the National Weather Service Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO), the market's official resolution source. Hourly records confirm a peak of 62°F amid persistent low marine layer, westerly winds of 15-25 mph, and partial cloud cover, keeping readings below the climatological April average of 65°F. Pre-event NOAA forecast models like GFS and ECMWF accurately predicted this cool regime due to strong onshore flow and cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures around 57°F. Resolution is straightforward absent rare post hoc data revisions from quality control, such as recalibrated sensor readings elevating the peak to 64°F—highly improbable given consistent mid-afternoon maxima around 60-62°F.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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