Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final, set for May 14 in Vienna, heavily favors powerhouses like Denmark and Ukraine to qualify among the top 10 from the 15 competing nations, driven by their proven televote appeal, diaspora support, and strong national selection winners. The running order reveal two days ago—placing Denmark at position 12 and Ukraine at 14—has sharpened implied probabilities, as mid-to-late slots historically boost visibility and momentum, while early openers like Bulgaria face uphill battles. Recent national finals, such as Romania's Alexandra Căpitănescu clinching "Choke Me" on March 4, add fresh buzz, but jury-televote splits create volatility for dark horses like Albania and Cyprus. Watch first rehearsals in late April for potential shifts before the qualifiers lock in.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2026年欧洲电视网：第二场半决赛
2026年欧洲电视网：第二场半决赛
$87,937 交易量
2026-05-14
丹麦
95%
乌克兰
95%
澳大利亚
94%
塞浦路斯
84%
保加利亚
83%
罗马尼亚
80%
马耳他
78%
挪威
72%
阿尔巴尼亚
68%
捷克
61%
拉脱维亚
61%
瑞士
39%
卢森堡
36%
亚美尼亚
30%
阿塞拜疆
6%
$87,937 交易量
丹麦
$555 交易量
95%
乌克兰
$1,172 交易量
95%
澳大利亚
$11,407 交易量
94%
塞浦路斯
$7,019 交易量
84%
保加利亚
$5,139 交易量
83%
罗马尼亚
$5,214 交易量
80%
马耳他
$737 交易量
78%
挪威
$4,544 交易量
72%
阿尔巴尼亚
$3,173 交易量
68%
捷克
$25,080 交易量
61%
拉脱维亚
$638 交易量
61%
瑞士
$6,224 交易量
39%
卢森堡
$4,932 交易量
36%
亚美尼亚
$10,309 交易量
30%
阿塞拜疆
$1,794 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final, set for May 14 in Vienna, heavily favors powerhouses like Denmark and Ukraine to qualify among the top 10 from the 15 competing nations, driven by their proven televote appeal, diaspora support, and strong national selection winners. The running order reveal two days ago—placing Denmark at position 12 and Ukraine at 14—has sharpened implied probabilities, as mid-to-late slots historically boost visibility and momentum, while early openers like Bulgaria face uphill battles. Recent national finals, such as Romania's Alexandra Căpitănescu clinching "Choke Me" on March 4, add fresh buzz, but jury-televote splits create volatility for dark horses like Albania and Cyprus. Watch first rehearsals in late April for potential shifts before the qualifiers lock in.
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
交易量
$87,937结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final, set for May 14 in Vienna, heavily favors powerhouses like Denmark and Ukraine to qualify among the top 10 from the 15 competing nations, driven by their proven televote appeal, diaspora support, and strong national selection winners. The running order reveal two days ago—placing Denmark at position 12 and Ukraine at 14—has sharpened implied probabilities, as mid-to-late slots historically boost visibility and momentum, while early openers like Bulgaria face uphill battles. Recent national finals, such as Romania's Alexandra Căpitănescu clinching "Choke Me" on March 4, add fresh buzz, but jury-televote splits create volatility for dark horses like Albania and Cyprus. Watch first rehearsals in late April for potential shifts before the qualifiers lock in.
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$87,937结束日期
2026-05-14市场开放时间
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final, set for May 14 in Vienna, heavily favors powerhouses like Denmark and Ukraine to qualify among the top 10 from the 15 competing nations, driven by their proven televote appeal, diaspora support, and strong national selection winners. The running order reveal two days ago—placing Denmark at position 12 and Ukraine at 14—has sharpened implied probabilities, as mid-to-late slots historically boost visibility and momentum, while early openers like Bulgaria face uphill battles. Recent national finals, such as Romania's Alexandra Căpitănescu clinching "Choke Me" on March 4, add fresh buzz, but jury-televote splits create volatility for dark horses like Albania and Cyprus. Watch first rehearsals in late April for potential shifts before the qualifiers lock in.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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