Recent developments in euro-area inflation, driven by energy-price spikes from the Middle East conflict, have positioned a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome with an 88.5% probability. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, Governing Council communications highlighted intensified upside risks to the 2.6% 2026 inflation projection and second-round effects, shifting trader consensus toward tightening. This pricing reflects the central bank's data-dependent stance and reluctance to pre-commit to a path amid resilient core measures. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10-11 policy meeting and fresh inflation releases that could confirm or temper the current hawkish tilt in expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于加息25个基点 89%
No change 10.3%
加息50个基点及以上 <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$300,013 交易量
$300,013 交易量
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
10%
加息25个基点
89%
加息50个基点及以上
1%
加息25个基点 89%
No change 10.3%
加息50个基点及以上 <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$300,013 交易量
$300,013 交易量
2026-06-11
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$48,305 交易量
<1%
No change
$56,074 交易量
10%
加息25个基点
$76,319 交易量
89%
加息50个基点及以上
$58,653 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent developments in euro-area inflation, driven by energy-price spikes from the Middle East conflict, have positioned a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome with an 88.5% probability. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, Governing Council communications highlighted intensified upside risks to the 2.6% 2026 inflation projection and second-round effects, shifting trader consensus toward tightening. This pricing reflects the central bank's data-dependent stance and reluctance to pre-commit to a path amid resilient core measures. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10-11 policy meeting and fresh inflation releases that could confirm or temper the current hawkish tilt in expectations.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$300,013结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Recent developments in euro-area inflation, driven by energy-price spikes from the Middle East conflict, have positioned a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome with an 88.5% probability. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, Governing Council communications highlighted intensified upside risks to the 2.6% 2026 inflation projection and second-round effects, shifting trader consensus toward tightening. This pricing reflects the central bank's data-dependent stance and reluctance to pre-commit to a path amid resilient core measures. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10-11 policy meeting and fresh inflation releases that could confirm or temper the current hawkish tilt in expectations.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
交易量
$300,013结束日期
2026-06-11市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments in euro-area inflation, driven by energy-price spikes from the Middle East conflict, have positioned a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome with an 88.5% probability. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate steady at 2.00%, Governing Council communications highlighted intensified upside risks to the 2.6% 2026 inflation projection and second-round effects, shifting trader consensus toward tightening. This pricing reflects the central bank's data-dependent stance and reluctance to pre-commit to a path amid resilient core measures. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 10-11 policy meeting and fresh inflation releases that could confirm or temper the current hawkish tilt in expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题