Banxico's March 26 decision to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in a divided 3-2 vote—despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.63% in early March—has shaped trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 77% implied probability of no change at the May 7 meeting. This reflects caution over persistent price pressures above the 3% target midpoint, balanced against weak growth signals that prompted the surprise easing resumption after a prior pause. Governor comments on March 30 signaling the cut cycle is "close to finishing" reinforce the pause bias, with 23% odds on a further decrease hinging on softening April CPI data and negligible 1.1% for a hike amid accommodative monetary policy stance. Traders eye fortnightly inflation releases ahead of the FOMC's influence on peso dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于维持不变 77%
降息 23%
加息 1.5%
最新
最新
2026-05-07
降息
23%
维持不变
77%
加息
2%
维持不变 77%
降息 23%
加息 1.5%
最新
最新
2026-05-07
降息
$2,280 交易量
23%
维持不变
$3,726 交易量
77%
加息
$2,693 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Banxico's March 26 decision to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in a divided 3-2 vote—despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.63% in early March—has shaped trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 77% implied probability of no change at the May 7 meeting. This reflects caution over persistent price pressures above the 3% target midpoint, balanced against weak growth signals that prompted the surprise easing resumption after a prior pause. Governor comments on March 30 signaling the cut cycle is "close to finishing" reinforce the pause bias, with 23% odds on a further decrease hinging on softening April CPI data and negligible 1.1% for a hike amid accommodative monetary policy stance. Traders eye fortnightly inflation releases ahead of the FOMC's influence on peso dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$8,699结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Banxico's March 26 decision to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in a divided 3-2 vote—despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.63% in early March—has shaped trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 77% implied probability of no change at the May 7 meeting. This reflects caution over persistent price pressures above the 3% target midpoint, balanced against weak growth signals that prompted the surprise easing resumption after a prior pause. Governor comments on March 30 signaling the cut cycle is "close to finishing" reinforce the pause bias, with 23% odds on a further decrease hinging on softening April CPI data and negligible 1.1% for a hike amid accommodative monetary policy stance. Traders eye fortnightly inflation releases ahead of the FOMC's influence on peso dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$8,699结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Banxico's March 26 decision to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 6.75% in a divided 3-2 vote—despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.63% in early March—has shaped trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 77% implied probability of no change at the May 7 meeting. This reflects caution over persistent price pressures above the 3% target midpoint, balanced against weak growth signals that prompted the surprise easing resumption after a prior pause. Governor comments on March 30 signaling the cut cycle is "close to finishing" reinforce the pause bias, with 23% odds on a further decrease hinging on softening April CPI data and negligible 1.1% for a hike amid accommodative monetary policy stance. Traders eye fortnightly inflation releases ahead of the FOMC's influence on peso dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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