Spain holds a narrow trader consensus lead at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their seamless transition from Euro 2024 glory—fueled by Lamine Yamal's emergence and Rodri's midfield dominance—coupled with a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign that secured direct qualification early. The race remains tightly bunched through England's consistent form under Southgate, France's depth highlighted by their recent 3-1 friendly win over Colombia, Argentina's enduring Lionel Messi factor despite aging concerns, and Brazil's raw talent rebounding from qualifier stumbles. The expanded 48-team format, with 12 groups of four advancing top two plus eight best third-placers to a lengthier knockout path, amplifies upset risks and evens the field among UEFA's 16 slots and CONMEBOL powerhouses, keeping probabilities competitive absent major injuries or shocks in the final qualifiers' playoffs concluding March 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$427,603,395 交易量
$427,603,395 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$427,603,395 交易量
$427,603,395 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a narrow trader consensus lead at 15.8% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup title, driven by their seamless transition from Euro 2024 glory—fueled by Lamine Yamal's emergence and Rodri's midfield dominance—coupled with a flawless UEFA qualifying campaign that secured direct qualification early. The race remains tightly bunched through England's consistent form under Southgate, France's depth highlighted by their recent 3-1 friendly win over Colombia, Argentina's enduring Lionel Messi factor despite aging concerns, and Brazil's raw talent rebounding from qualifier stumbles. The expanded 48-team format, with 12 groups of four advancing top two plus eight best third-placers to a lengthier knockout path, amplifies upset risks and evens the field among UEFA's 16 slots and CONMEBOL powerhouses, keeping probabilities competitive absent major injuries or shocks in the final qualifiers' playoffs concluding March 31.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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