Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of England (13%) and France (11%), underscoring the razor-thin margins among UEFA powerhouses after dominant qualification runs. Spain's position reflects their Euro 2024 title and recent 2-0 qualifier win over Georgia, fueled by young talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri in peak club form. England benefits from Premier League depth and consistent head-to-head edges, while France's Mbappé-led attack remains lethal post-qualifiers. Defending champions Argentina (10%) hold firm despite Messi's age, and Brazil (9%) leverages Neymar and Vinícius Jr. amid CONMEBOL spots secured for six South Americans. The expanded 48-team field, tough draws, and three-month buildup amplify volatility in this fiercely contested race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.8%
阿根廷 9.9%
$408,146,905 交易量
$408,146,905 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
摩洛哥
2%
美国
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
加纳
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 10.8%
阿根廷 9.9%
$408,146,905 交易量
$408,146,905 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
摩洛哥
2%
美国
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
加纳
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads trader consensus at 16% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of England (13%) and France (11%), underscoring the razor-thin margins among UEFA powerhouses after dominant qualification runs. Spain's position reflects their Euro 2024 title and recent 2-0 qualifier win over Georgia, fueled by young talents like Lamine Yamal and Pedri in peak club form. England benefits from Premier League depth and consistent head-to-head edges, while France's Mbappé-led attack remains lethal post-qualifiers. Defending champions Argentina (10%) hold firm despite Messi's age, and Brazil (9%) leverages Neymar and Vinícius Jr. amid CONMEBOL spots secured for six South Americans. The expanded 48-team field, tough draws, and three-month buildup amplify volatility in this fiercely contested race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题