Spain leads Polymarket's trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, driven by their seamless UEFA qualification campaign, Euro 2024 title momentum, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal alongside Rodri's midfield dominance. England (12.8%), France (11.1%), and Argentina (9.8%) trail closely, reflecting robust group stage advancements, Nations League form, and defensive solidity for the Europeans, while defending champions Argentina rely on Messi's experience despite his advancing age. Brazil (8.6%) rebounds with young talent post-qualifiers. The race stays tight in this 48-team expanded format, as recent intercontinental playoffs (e.g., Bolivia's March 26 win) finalized the field without upsets among favorites, no major injuries disrupt rosters, and the longer group-to-knockout path heightens upset potential across deep CONMEBOL and UEFA contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$416,131,480 交易量
$416,131,480 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$416,131,480 交易量
$416,131,480 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
库拉索
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain leads Polymarket's trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner at 15.8% implied probability, driven by their seamless UEFA qualification campaign, Euro 2024 title momentum, and emerging stars like Lamine Yamal alongside Rodri's midfield dominance. England (12.8%), France (11.1%), and Argentina (9.8%) trail closely, reflecting robust group stage advancements, Nations League form, and defensive solidity for the Europeans, while defending champions Argentina rely on Messi's experience despite his advancing age. Brazil (8.6%) rebounds with young talent post-qualifiers. The race stays tight in this 48-team expanded format, as recent intercontinental playoffs (e.g., Bolivia's March 26 win) finalized the field without upsets among favorites, no major injuries disrupt rosters, and the longer group-to-knockout path heightens upset potential across deep CONMEBOL and UEFA contenders.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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