Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their flawless UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and Euro 2024 triumph showcasing Lamine Yamal and a fluid attack. France (12.6%) and England (12.3%) trail closely, with Les Bleus' depth around Kylian Mbappé intact post-playoffs and the Three Lions' Premier League firepower undented despite a gritty path. Defending champions Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive via CONMEBOL dominance, but Messi's age and Brazil's inconsistent qualifiers temper enthusiasm. The expanded 48-team format, North American hosting for USA, Canada, and Mexico, and draw protections keeping powerhouses apart until late knockout rounds keep the race tight, reflecting balanced paths amid no major injuries from March playoffs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 16.4%
法国 12.6%
英格兰 12.3%
阿根廷 9.4%
$455,110,912 交易量
$455,110,912 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
4%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞士
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
Team AF
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
分组项标题：AE队
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Team AD
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
AC 队
<1%
南非
<1%
AB队
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 16.4%
法国 12.6%
英格兰 12.3%
阿根廷 9.4%
$455,110,912 交易量
$455,110,912 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
4%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
日本
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞士
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
Team AF
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
分组项标题：AE队
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
Team AD
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
AC 队
<1%
南非
<1%
AB队
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 16.4% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their flawless UEFA qualifying campaign—topping their group unbeaten—and Euro 2024 triumph showcasing Lamine Yamal and a fluid attack. France (12.6%) and England (12.3%) trail closely, with Les Bleus' depth around Kylian Mbappé intact post-playoffs and the Three Lions' Premier League firepower undented despite a gritty path. Defending champions Argentina (9.4%) and Brazil (8.6%) remain competitive via CONMEBOL dominance, but Messi's age and Brazil's inconsistent qualifiers temper enthusiasm. The expanded 48-team format, North American hosting for USA, Canada, and Mexico, and draw protections keeping powerhouses apart until late knockout rounds keep the race tight, reflecting balanced paths amid no major injuries from March playoffs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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