Spain holds a narrow lead at 16.4% implied probability as trader consensus favorite, buoyed by their Euro 2024 title, dominant UEFA qualifying (5 wins, 1 draw, +19 GD), and Lamine Yamal's explosive club form, but the market stays tightly bunched amid balanced contender strengths. France surged to 12.8% after a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26—Mbappé and Ekitike scoring despite a red card—highlighting squad depth with Olise and Dembélé, while England's perfect 8-0 qualifying run (22 GD) keeps them at 12.3%. Defending champions Argentina (9.3%) draw from recent Copa successes, as Brazil slips to 8.6% following friendly defeats to Croatia and Japan. With all topping qualifiers secured and groups drawn featuring manageable paths like Spain's against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, no team dominates in the expanded 48-team format.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 16.4%
法国 12.8%
英格兰 12.4%
阿根廷 9.3%
$451,303,327 交易量
$451,303,327 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞士
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 16.4%
法国 12.8%
英格兰 12.4%
阿根廷 9.3%
$451,303,327 交易量
$451,303,327 交易量
西班牙
16%
法国
13%
英格兰
12%
阿根廷
9%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
日本
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
乌拉圭
1%
瑞士
1%
克罗地亚
1%
墨西哥
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
瑞典
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
埃及
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
新西兰
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
巴拿马
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain holds a narrow lead at 16.4% implied probability as trader consensus favorite, buoyed by their Euro 2024 title, dominant UEFA qualifying (5 wins, 1 draw, +19 GD), and Lamine Yamal's explosive club form, but the market stays tightly bunched amid balanced contender strengths. France surged to 12.8% after a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil on March 26—Mbappé and Ekitike scoring despite a red card—highlighting squad depth with Olise and Dembélé, while England's perfect 8-0 qualifying run (22 GD) keeps them at 12.3%. Defending champions Argentina (9.3%) draw from recent Copa successes, as Brazil slips to 8.6% following friendly defeats to Croatia and Japan. With all topping qualifiers secured and groups drawn featuring manageable paths like Spain's against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay, no team dominates in the expanded 48-team format.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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