Spain holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign and Euro 2024 triumph featuring Lamine Yamal's breakout stardom, but the top cluster remains tightly contested amid balanced European and South American depth. Recent March friendlies underscored vulnerabilities, with France's 2-1 upset win over Brazil boosting Les Bleus' momentum via Kylian Mbappé's sharpness, while England's Thomas Tuchel-era preparations and Argentina's Lionel Messi-led experience keep paces close. UEFA playoffs wrapped March 26 without seismic shifts for seeds, leaving dynamics fluid with group-stage draws favoring no dominant path, peaking club forms, and injury risks ahead of the June 11 kickoff in North America.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$427,159,811 交易量
$427,159,811 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$427,159,811 交易量
$427,159,811 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
加纳
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the 2026 FIFA World Cup at 15.8% implied probability, buoyed by their unbeaten UEFA qualifying campaign and Euro 2024 triumph featuring Lamine Yamal's breakout stardom, but the top cluster remains tightly contested amid balanced European and South American depth. Recent March friendlies underscored vulnerabilities, with France's 2-1 upset win over Brazil boosting Les Bleus' momentum via Kylian Mbappé's sharpness, while England's Thomas Tuchel-era preparations and Argentina's Lionel Messi-led experience keep paces close. UEFA playoffs wrapped March 26 without seismic shifts for seeds, leaving dynamics fluid with group-stage draws favoring no dominant path, peaking club forms, and injury risks ahead of the June 11 kickoff in North America.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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