Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 dominance, seamless UEFA qualification, and young stars like Lamine Yamal driving Nations League form, but the market remains tightly contested with no clear favorite amid an expanded 48-team format where 32 teams advance from group stage. England (12.8%) gains from Jude Bellingham's emergence and early qualification security, France (11%) surged after a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil, while defending champions Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) face headwinds from Lionel Messi's advancing age and Rodrygo's season-ending injury, respectively. Portugal (6.8%) and Norway (3%) linger with Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland as X-factors, underscoring the depth across UEFA and CONMEBOL contenders just 73 days from kickoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$418,809,119 交易量
$418,809,119 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
西班牙 15.8%
英格兰 12.8%
法国 11.1%
阿根廷 9.8%
$418,809,119 交易量
$418,809,119 交易量
西班牙
16%
英格兰
13%
法国
11%
阿根廷
10%
巴西
9%
葡萄牙
7%
德国
5%
荷兰
3%
挪威
3%
意大利
2%
比利时
2%
小组项标题：哥伦比亚
2%
美国
2%
摩洛哥
2%
日本
1%
乌拉圭
1%
墨西哥
1%
克罗地亚
1%
瑞士
1%
厄瓜多尔
1%
塞内加尔
1%
分组项标题：加拿大
1%
Austria
1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
科特迪瓦
<1%
阿尔及利亚
<1%
苏格兰
<1%
突尼斯
<1%
澳大利亚
<1%
沙特阿拉伯
<1%
埃及
<1%
海地
<1%
约旦
<1%
伊朗
<1%
加纳
<1%
南非
<1%
佛得角
<1%
分组项标题：卡塔尔
<1%
新西兰
<1%
库拉索
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Spain holds a slim edge in trader consensus at 15.8% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by their Euro 2024 dominance, seamless UEFA qualification, and young stars like Lamine Yamal driving Nations League form, but the market remains tightly contested with no clear favorite amid an expanded 48-team format where 32 teams advance from group stage. England (12.8%) gains from Jude Bellingham's emergence and early qualification security, France (11%) surged after a recent 2-1 friendly victory over Brazil, while defending champions Argentina (9.8%) and Brazil (8.6%) face headwinds from Lionel Messi's advancing age and Rodrygo's season-ending injury, respectively. Portugal (6.8%) and Norway (3%) linger with Cristiano Ronaldo and Erling Haaland as X-factors, underscoring the depth across UEFA and CONMEBOL contenders just 73 days from kickoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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