Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,400 at March end, reflecting recent downside momentum from escalating Iran conflict tensions and surging oil prices that have triggered four straight weekly losses and elevated volatility around 19-20%. The index tumbled 1.7% to 6,369 on March 27—its lowest in six months—after a 1.7% drop the prior day amid renewed crude advances, erasing early-month gains and shifting sentiment bearish with narrow market breadth. February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year tempers Fed rate-cut hopes amid energy pressures, while the final March 30-31 sessions loom as pivotal for resolution amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6,500-6,600 16%
6,400–6,500 14%
6,600-6,700美元 4%
6,800至6,900美元 2.4%
$11,164 交易量
$11,164 交易量
低於$6,400
44%
6,400–6,500
14%
6,500-6,600
13%
6,600-6,700美元
10%
6,700-6,800美元
2%
6,800至6,900美元
2%
6,900-7,000美元
2%
7,000-7,100
2%
7,100-7,200
1%
7,200-7,300
<1%
>$7,300
1%
6,500-6,600 16%
6,400–6,500 14%
6,600-6,700美元 4%
6,800至6,900美元 2.4%
$11,164 交易量
$11,164 交易量
低於$6,400
44%
6,400–6,500
14%
6,500-6,600
13%
6,600-6,700美元
10%
6,700-6,800美元
2%
6,800至6,900美元
2%
6,900-7,000美元
2%
7,000-7,100
2%
7,100-7,200
1%
7,200-7,300
<1%
>$7,300
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間: Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 44.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,400 at March end, reflecting recent downside momentum from escalating Iran conflict tensions and surging oil prices that have triggered four straight weekly losses and elevated volatility around 19-20%. The index tumbled 1.7% to 6,369 on March 27—its lowest in six months—after a 1.7% drop the prior day amid renewed crude advances, erasing early-month gains and shifting sentiment bearish with narrow market breadth. February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year tempers Fed rate-cut hopes amid energy pressures, while the final March 30-31 sessions loom as pivotal for resolution amid ongoing geopolitical risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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