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標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?

icon for 標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?

標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?

12月 31

12月 31

7,000-7,500 22%

6,000-6,500美元 16%

7,500-8,000美元 16%

>8,000美元 16%

Polymarket

$27,090 交易量

7,000-7,500 22%

6,000-6,500美元 16%

7,500-8,000美元 16%

>8,000美元 16%

Polymarket

$27,090 交易量

低於$6,000

$16,153 交易量

16%

6,000-6,500美元

$1,509 交易量

16%

6,500-7,000美元

$2,896 交易量

14%

7,000-7,500

$1,203 交易量

22%

7,500-8,000美元

$2,810 交易量

16%

>8,000美元

$2,518 交易量

20%

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Divergent expectations for corporate earnings growth and macroeconomic resilience underpin the closely matched Polymarket odds on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end close, with the index trading near 7,473. Analyst targets cluster around 7,200–7,800, reflecting 12–16% projected EPS expansion fueled by AI-driven productivity gains and technology sector strength, offset by risks including geopolitical tensions, potential inflation reacceleration, and Fed policy calibration. This balance produces a wide distribution of implied probabilities across ranges, as traders weigh base-case expansion against downside scenarios from higher rates or slower growth outside the largest constituents. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in monetary policy guidance that could refine the market-implied path.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$27,090
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Divergent expectations for corporate earnings growth and macroeconomic resilience underpin the closely matched Polymarket odds on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end close, with the index trading near 7,473. Analyst targets cluster around 7,200–7,800, reflecting 12–16% projected EPS expansion fueled by AI-driven productivity gains and technology sector strength, offset by risks including geopolitical tensions, potential inflation reacceleration, and Fed policy calibration. This balance produces a wide distribution of implied probabilities across ranges, as traders weigh base-case expansion against downside scenarios from higher rates or slower growth outside the largest constituents. Key catalysts ahead include upcoming earnings reports and any shifts in monetary policy guidance that could refine the market-implied path.

This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$27,090
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "7,000-7,500" at 23%, followed by ">8,000美元" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?" has generated $27.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?" is "7,000-7,500" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is ">8,000美元" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "標準普爾500指數( SPX )將在2026年底收盤?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.