The wide distribution of implied probabilities across S&P 500 closing ranges at year-end 2026 reflects substantial uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook and corporate earnings trajectory through the second half of the year. Traders appear to be weighting the potential for moderate equity gains—centered on the 7,000–7,500 band at 27%—against risks from persistent inflation data, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and shifts in GDP growth or labor market conditions. Higher thresholds above 7,500 would likely require stronger-than-expected earnings expansion or further monetary easing, while lower bands price in scenarios of economic softening or elevated rates compressing valuations. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and quarterly earnings releases that could refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7,000-7,500 27%
7,500-8,000美元 17%
>8,000美元 16%
低於$6,000 15%
$27,144 交易量
$27,144 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
15%
6,000-6,500美元
13%
6,500-7,000美元
9%
7,000-7,500
27%
7,500-8,000美元
17%
>8,000美元
16%
7,000-7,500 27%
7,500-8,000美元 17%
>8,000美元 16%
低於$6,000 15%
$27,144 交易量
$27,144 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$16,208 交易量
15%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,509 交易量
13%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,896 交易量
9%
7,000-7,500
$1,203 交易量
27%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,810 交易量
17%
>8,000美元
$2,518 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The wide distribution of implied probabilities across S&P 500 closing ranges at year-end 2026 reflects substantial uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook and corporate earnings trajectory through the second half of the year. Traders appear to be weighting the potential for moderate equity gains—centered on the 7,000–7,500 band at 27%—against risks from persistent inflation data, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and shifts in GDP growth or labor market conditions. Higher thresholds above 7,500 would likely require stronger-than-expected earnings expansion or further monetary easing, while lower bands price in scenarios of economic softening or elevated rates compressing valuations. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and quarterly earnings releases that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$27,144結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."The wide distribution of implied probabilities across S&P 500 closing ranges at year-end 2026 reflects substantial uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook and corporate earnings trajectory through the second half of the year. Traders appear to be weighting the potential for moderate equity gains—centered on the 7,000–7,500 band at 27%—against risks from persistent inflation data, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and shifts in GDP growth or labor market conditions. Higher thresholds above 7,500 would likely require stronger-than-expected earnings expansion or further monetary easing, while lower bands price in scenarios of economic softening or elevated rates compressing valuations. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and quarterly earnings releases that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$27,144結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThe wide distribution of implied probabilities across S&P 500 closing ranges at year-end 2026 reflects substantial uncertainty in the macroeconomic outlook and corporate earnings trajectory through the second half of the year. Traders appear to be weighting the potential for moderate equity gains—centered on the 7,000–7,500 band at 27%—against risks from persistent inflation data, Federal Reserve policy adjustments, and shifts in GDP growth or labor market conditions. Higher thresholds above 7,500 would likely require stronger-than-expected earnings expansion or further monetary easing, while lower bands price in scenarios of economic softening or elevated rates compressing valuations. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC decisions and quarterly earnings releases that could refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions