Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting downside risks from a sluggish Q1 performance—down 4.6% to around 6,580 amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, an oil price spike, and the Federal Reserve's pause at the 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range after February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. The index trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakening momentum despite analyst forecasts clustering around 7,200-7,600. Q1 earnings growth is projected at 12.5%, but persistent inflation pressures and conflict-related volatility temper upside into higher bins like $7,000-$7,500 (20%). Key catalysts include ongoing earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於低於$6,000 42%
7,000-7,500 20%
6,500-7,000美元 18%
6,000-6,500美元 17%
$16,383 交易量
$16,383 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
42%
6,000-6,500美元
17%
6,500-7,000美元
18%
7,000-7,500
20%
7,500-8,000美元
6%
>8,000美元
6%
低於$6,000 42%
7,000-7,500 20%
6,500-7,000美元 18%
6,000-6,500美元 17%
$16,383 交易量
$16,383 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$10,275 交易量
42%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,119 交易量
17%
6,500-7,000美元
$1,322 交易量
18%
7,000-7,500
$704 交易量
20%
7,500-8,000美元
$1,438 交易量
6%
>8,000美元
$1,525 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting downside risks from a sluggish Q1 performance—down 4.6% to around 6,580 amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, an oil price spike, and the Federal Reserve's pause at the 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range after February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. The index trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakening momentum despite analyst forecasts clustering around 7,200-7,600. Q1 earnings growth is projected at 12.5%, but persistent inflation pressures and conflict-related volatility temper upside into higher bins like $7,000-$7,500 (20%). Key catalysts include ongoing earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$16,383結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting downside risks from a sluggish Q1 performance—down 4.6% to around 6,580 amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, an oil price spike, and the Federal Reserve's pause at the 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range after February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. The index trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakening momentum despite analyst forecasts clustering around 7,200-7,600. Q1 earnings growth is projected at 12.5%, but persistent inflation pressures and conflict-related volatility temper upside into higher bins like $7,000-$7,500 (20%). Key catalysts include ongoing earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$16,383結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 41.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting downside risks from a sluggish Q1 performance—down 4.6% to around 6,580 amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, an oil price spike, and the Federal Reserve's pause at the 3.5%-3.75% fed funds range after February CPI held steady at 2.4% year-over-year. The index trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling weakening momentum despite analyst forecasts clustering around 7,200-7,600. Q1 earnings growth is projected at 12.5%, but persistent inflation pressures and conflict-related volatility temper upside into higher bins like $7,000-$7,500 (20%). Key catalysts include ongoing earnings reports and the April FOMC meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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