Trader consensus reflected in these closely matched market-implied odds centers on expectations for moderate S&P 500 gains through year-end 2026, driven primarily by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth amid AI-related capital expenditures and a resilient U.S. economy. Current levels near 7,470 incorporate forward valuations around 22 times earnings, with the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks from energy prices and geopolitical developments. Key swing factors include the pace of any additional rate cuts, labor market stability, and whether AI productivity gains materialize broadly enough to support higher multiples. Upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications could shift positioning across the $7,000-$8,000 range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7,000-7,500 27%
7,500-8,000美元 17%
>8,000美元 16%
低於$6,000 16%
$27,090 交易量
$27,090 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
16%
6,000-6,500美元
17%
6,500-7,000美元
14%
7,000-7,500
27%
7,500-8,000美元
17%
>8,000美元
20%
7,000-7,500 27%
7,500-8,000美元 17%
>8,000美元 16%
低於$6,000 16%
$27,090 交易量
$27,090 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$16,153 交易量
16%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,509 交易量
17%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,896 交易量
14%
7,000-7,500
$1,203 交易量
27%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,810 交易量
17%
>8,000美元
$2,518 交易量
20%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus reflected in these closely matched market-implied odds centers on expectations for moderate S&P 500 gains through year-end 2026, driven primarily by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth amid AI-related capital expenditures and a resilient U.S. economy. Current levels near 7,470 incorporate forward valuations around 22 times earnings, with the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks from energy prices and geopolitical developments. Key swing factors include the pace of any additional rate cuts, labor market stability, and whether AI productivity gains materialize broadly enough to support higher multiples. Upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications could shift positioning across the $7,000-$8,000 range.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$27,090結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus reflected in these closely matched market-implied odds centers on expectations for moderate S&P 500 gains through year-end 2026, driven primarily by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth amid AI-related capital expenditures and a resilient U.S. economy. Current levels near 7,470 incorporate forward valuations around 22 times earnings, with the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks from energy prices and geopolitical developments. Key swing factors include the pace of any additional rate cuts, labor market stability, and whether AI productivity gains materialize broadly enough to support higher multiples. Upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications could shift positioning across the $7,000-$8,000 range.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$27,090結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETTrader consensus reflected in these closely matched market-implied odds centers on expectations for moderate S&P 500 gains through year-end 2026, driven primarily by projected 12% earnings-per-share growth amid AI-related capital expenditures and a resilient U.S. economy. Current levels near 7,470 incorporate forward valuations around 22 times earnings, with the Federal Reserve holding the funds rate at 3.5-3.75% amid elevated inflation risks from energy prices and geopolitical developments. Key swing factors include the pace of any additional rate cuts, labor market stability, and whether AI productivity gains materialize broadly enough to support higher multiples. Upcoming inflation releases and FOMC communications could shift positioning across the $7,000-$8,000 range.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions