Robust corporate earnings growth, projected at 12-14% for 2026 amid accelerating AI adoption and productivity gains, anchors trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end. With the index trading near 7,350 in mid-May and analyst targets clustered between 7,500 and 7,800, the 28.5% implied probability on the $7,000-$7,500 bin reflects consensus around modest gains from current levels. Supportive factors include Federal Reserve easing toward a neutral funds rate near 3.00-3.25% and fiscal tailwinds from recent policy measures, though elevated valuations and softening labor data introduce downside risks that explain the 19.5% weighting on sub-$6,000 outcomes. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and quarterly earnings that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7,000-7,500 29%
低於$6,000 20%
7,500-8,000美元 16%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
$26,884 交易量
$26,884 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
20%
6,000-6,500美元
14%
6,500-7,000美元
15%
7,000-7,500
29%
7,500-8,000美元
16%
>8,000美元
14%
7,000-7,500 29%
低於$6,000 20%
7,500-8,000美元 16%
6,500-7,000美元 15%
$26,884 交易量
$26,884 交易量
2026-12-31
低於$6,000
$16,059 交易量
20%
6,000-6,500美元
$1,509 交易量
14%
6,500-7,000美元
$2,827 交易量
15%
7,000-7,500
$1,203 交易量
29%
7,500-8,000美元
$2,810 交易量
16%
>8,000美元
$2,475 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, projected at 12-14% for 2026 amid accelerating AI adoption and productivity gains, anchors trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end. With the index trading near 7,350 in mid-May and analyst targets clustered between 7,500 and 7,800, the 28.5% implied probability on the $7,000-$7,500 bin reflects consensus around modest gains from current levels. Supportive factors include Federal Reserve easing toward a neutral funds rate near 3.00-3.25% and fiscal tailwinds from recent policy measures, though elevated valuations and softening labor data introduce downside risks that explain the 19.5% weighting on sub-$6,000 outcomes. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and quarterly earnings that could shift the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
交易量
$26,884結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Robust corporate earnings growth, projected at 12-14% for 2026 amid accelerating AI adoption and productivity gains, anchors trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end. With the index trading near 7,350 in mid-May and analyst targets clustered between 7,500 and 7,800, the 28.5% implied probability on the $7,000-$7,500 bin reflects consensus around modest gains from current levels. Supportive factors include Federal Reserve easing toward a neutral funds rate near 3.00-3.25% and fiscal tailwinds from recent policy measures, though elevated valuations and softening labor data introduce downside risks that explain the 19.5% weighting on sub-$6,000 outcomes. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and quarterly earnings that could shift the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
交易量
$26,884結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETRobust corporate earnings growth, projected at 12-14% for 2026 amid accelerating AI adoption and productivity gains, anchors trader sentiment for the S&P 500 close at year-end. With the index trading near 7,350 in mid-May and analyst targets clustered between 7,500 and 7,800, the 28.5% implied probability on the $7,000-$7,500 bin reflects consensus around modest gains from current levels. Supportive factors include Federal Reserve easing toward a neutral funds rate near 3.00-3.25% and fiscal tailwinds from recent policy measures, though elevated valuations and softening labor data introduce downside risks that explain the 19.5% weighting on sub-$6,000 outcomes. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications and quarterly earnings that could shift the market-implied rate path.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions