Market icon
金融·SPX

標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）

Market icon
金融·SPX

標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）

$327,245 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$327,245 交易量

Polymarket

5%漲幅

$23,038 交易量

1%

4%漲幅

$13,111 交易量

2%

3%漲幅

$5,551 交易量

4%

2%上漲

$14,436 交易量

24%

3%跌幅

$27,864 交易量

6%

4% 跌幅

$28,017 交易量

3%

5% 跌幅

$176,193 交易量

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Surging crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related conflicts, have driven sharp S&P 500 daily declines in late March 2026, with -1.74% on March 26 and -1.67% on March 27 marking the index's longest losing streak since 2022 and erasing early-year gains. This volatility caps Q1's largest gain at approximately +1.97% on February 6 amid Fed rate cut repricing, while the peak loss stands near -2.06% from January 20 turbulence; overall Q1 performance trends negative, down over 7% in March alone despite resilient 12.5% earnings growth consensus. Traders eye final trading days through March 31 for potential quarter-end swings, alongside looming Q1 earnings and inflation data.

Surging crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related conflicts, have driven sharp S&P 500 daily declines in late March 2026, with -1.74% on March 26 and -1.67% on March 27 marking the index's longest losing streak since 2022 and erasing early-year gains. This volatility caps Q1's largest gain at approximately +1.97% on February 6 amid Fed rate cut repricing, while the peak loss stands near -2.06% from January 20 turbulence; overall Q1 performance trends negative, down over 7% in March alone despite resilient 12.5% earnings growth consensus. Traders eye final trading days through March 31 for potential quarter-end swings, alongside looming Q1 earnings and inflation data.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Surging crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related conflicts, have driven sharp S&P 500 daily declines in late March 2026, with -1.74% on March 26 and -1.67% on March 27 marking the index's longest losing streak since 2022 and erasing early-year gains. This volatility caps Q1's largest gain at approximately +1.97% on February 6 amid Fed rate cut repricing, while the peak loss stands near -2.06% from January 20 turbulence; overall Q1 performance trends negative, down over 7% in March alone despite resilient 12.5% earnings growth consensus. Traders eye final trading days through March 31 for potential quarter-end swings, alongside looming Q1 earnings and inflation data.

Surging crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, fueled by escalating Middle East tensions including Iran-related conflicts, have driven sharp S&P 500 daily declines in late March 2026, with -1.74% on March 26 and -1.67% on March 27 marking the index's longest losing streak since 2022 and erasing early-year gains. This volatility caps Q1's largest gain at approximately +1.97% on February 6 amid Fed rate cut repricing, while the peak loss stands near -2.06% from January 20 turbulence; overall Q1 performance trends negative, down over 7% in March alone despite resilient 12.5% earnings growth consensus. Traders eye final trading days through March 31 for potential quarter-end swings, alongside looming Q1 earnings and inflation data.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1%漲幅" at 100%, followed by "1%跌幅" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）" has generated $327.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）" is "1%漲幅" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1%跌幅" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "標準普爾500指數第一季單日損益（ % ）" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.