Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented Nobel Peace Prize 2026 field, with Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability driven by her persistent anti-Putin campaign and Alexei Navalny's martyrdom narrative, narrowly ahead of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.3% following his February formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy against Russian aggression. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January Davos "Board of Peace" charter signing, though March comments downplaying interest curbed momentum. Pope Leo XIV at 4.3% benefits from Vatican diplomacy amid global conflicts. The PRIO Director's March 18 list spotlighting Ukraine child aid reinforces war themes, but absent precursor wins or guild-like signals, uncertainty persists until the October 10 ceremony, where historical upsets loom large.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 9.0%
唐納·川普 8%
教宗利奧十四 4.5%
$11,061,514 交易量
$11,061,514 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅
11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基
9%
唐納·川普
8%
教宗利奧十四
4%
國際法院
4%
聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處
3%
塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼
3%
格蕾塔·童貝里
3%
納倫德拉·莫迪
3%
查理·柯克
2%
習近平
2%
馬斯克
2%
安東尼奧·古特雷斯
2%
朱利安·阿桑奇
2%
哈立德·馬沙爾
1%
穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
1%
艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉
1%
雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安
1%
弗拉基米爾·普京
1%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
1%
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 9.0%
唐納·川普 8%
教宗利奧十四 4.5%
$11,061,514 交易量
$11,061,514 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅
$79,602 交易量
11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基
$401,370 交易量
9%
唐納·川普
$2,303,215 交易量
8%
教宗利奧十四
$474,037 交易量
4%
國際法院
$474,003 交易量
4%
聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處
$1,615,045 交易量
3%
塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼
$323,674 交易量
3%
格蕾塔·童貝里
$917,624 交易量
3%
納倫德拉·莫迪
$293,389 交易量
3%
查理·柯克
$479,469 交易量
2%
習近平
$754,028 交易量
2%
馬斯克
$0 交易量
2%
安東尼奧·古特雷斯
$142,791 交易量
2%
朱利安·阿桑奇
$328,501 交易量
2%
哈立德·馬沙爾
$204,908 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
$541,124 交易量
1%
艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉
$542,485 交易量
1%
雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安
$385,223 交易量
1%
弗拉基米爾·普京
$492,752 交易量
1%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
$309,075 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented Nobel Peace Prize 2026 field, with Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability driven by her persistent anti-Putin campaign and Alexei Navalny's martyrdom narrative, narrowly ahead of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.3% following his February formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy against Russian aggression. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January Davos "Board of Peace" charter signing, though March comments downplaying interest curbed momentum. Pope Leo XIV at 4.3% benefits from Vatican diplomacy amid global conflicts. The PRIO Director's March 18 list spotlighting Ukraine child aid reinforces war themes, but absent precursor wins or guild-like signals, uncertainty persists until the October 10 ceremony, where historical upsets loom large.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
市場開放時間： Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,061,514結束日期
Oct 10, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented Nobel Peace Prize 2026 field, with Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability driven by her persistent anti-Putin campaign and Alexei Navalny's martyrdom narrative, narrowly ahead of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.3% following his February formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy against Russian aggression. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January Davos "Board of Peace" charter signing, though March comments downplaying interest curbed momentum. Pope Leo XIV at 4.3% benefits from Vatican diplomacy amid global conflicts. The PRIO Director's March 18 list spotlighting Ukraine child aid reinforces war themes, but absent precursor wins or guild-like signals, uncertainty persists until the October 10 ceremony, where historical upsets loom large.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$11,061,514結束日期
Oct 10, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a fragmented Nobel Peace Prize 2026 field, with Yulia Navalnaya's 10.5% implied probability driven by her persistent anti-Putin campaign and Alexei Navalny's martyrdom narrative, narrowly ahead of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 9.3% following his February formal nomination by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy against Russian aggression. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January Davos "Board of Peace" charter signing, though March comments downplaying interest curbed momentum. Pope Leo XIV at 4.3% benefits from Vatican diplomacy amid global conflicts. The PRIO Director's March 18 list spotlighting Ukraine child aid reinforces war themes, but absent precursor wins or guild-like signals, uncertainty persists until the October 10 ceremony, where historical upsets loom large.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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