Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, her lead sustained by ongoing campaign momentum from her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Kremlin legacy and recent accolades like the CEU Open Society Prize. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by his formal nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, highlighting Ukraine's defense of democracy against Russian aggression as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump ranks third at 7.5%, backed by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January "Board of Peace" launch at Davos, though his recent disinterest comments introduce uncertainty. With top contenders under 11% and fragmented field, traders weigh geopolitical heroism versus controversy; breakthroughs in Ukraine or Middle East talks could shift dynamics before October's announcement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 9.8%
唐納·川普 8%
國際法院 4.0%
$11,626,295 交易量
$11,626,295 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅
11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基
10%
唐納·川普
8%
國際法院
4%
教宗利奧十四
4%
格蕾塔·童貝里
3%
塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼
3%
聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處
3%
納倫德拉·莫迪
3%
查理·柯克
2%
馬斯克
2%
習近平
2%
安東尼奧·古特雷斯
2%
朱利安·阿桑奇
2%
哈立德·馬沙爾
1%
穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
1%
艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉
1%
雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安
1%
弗拉基米爾·普京
1%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
1%
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 9.8%
唐納·川普 8%
國際法院 4.0%
$11,626,295 交易量
$11,626,295 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅
$79,663 交易量
11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基
$401,706 交易量
10%
唐納·川普
$2,303,630 交易量
8%
國際法院
$479,596 交易量
4%
教宗利奧十四
$478,056 交易量
4%
格蕾塔·童貝里
$918,762 交易量
3%
塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼
$328,515 交易量
3%
聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處
$1,619,449 交易量
3%
納倫德拉·莫迪
$293,389 交易量
3%
查理·柯克
$483,678 交易量
2%
馬斯克
$510,403 交易量
2%
習近平
$754,674 交易量
2%
安東尼奧·古特雷斯
$142,791 交易量
2%
朱利安·阿桑奇
$330,607 交易量
2%
哈立德·馬沙爾
$204,908 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
$552,494 交易量
1%
艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉
$543,136 交易量
1%
雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安
$391,691 交易量
1%
弗拉基米爾·普京
$493,034 交易量
1%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
$316,339 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, her lead sustained by ongoing campaign momentum from her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Kremlin legacy and recent accolades like the CEU Open Society Prize. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by his formal nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, highlighting Ukraine's defense of democracy against Russian aggression as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump ranks third at 7.5%, backed by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January "Board of Peace" launch at Davos, though his recent disinterest comments introduce uncertainty. With top contenders under 11% and fragmented field, traders weigh geopolitical heroism versus controversy; breakthroughs in Ukraine or Middle East talks could shift dynamics before October's announcement.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
市場開放時間： Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,626,295結束日期
Oct 10, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, her lead sustained by ongoing campaign momentum from her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Kremlin legacy and recent accolades like the CEU Open Society Prize. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by his formal nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, highlighting Ukraine's defense of democracy against Russian aggression as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump ranks third at 7.5%, backed by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January "Board of Peace" launch at Davos, though his recent disinterest comments introduce uncertainty. With top contenders under 11% and fragmented field, traders weigh geopolitical heroism versus controversy; breakthroughs in Ukraine or Middle East talks could shift dynamics before October's announcement.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$11,626,295結束日期
Oct 10, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket places Yulia Navalnaya as the slim frontrunner at 10.5% implied probability for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, her lead sustained by ongoing campaign momentum from her late husband Alexei Navalny's anti-Kremlin legacy and recent accolades like the CEU Open Society Prize. Volodymyr Zelenskyy trails closely at 9.8%, propelled by his formal nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø, highlighting Ukraine's defense of democracy against Russian aggression as a compelling narrative. Donald Trump ranks third at 7.5%, backed by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's endorsement and his January "Board of Peace" launch at Davos, though his recent disinterest comments introduce uncertainty. With top contenders under 11% and fragmented field, traders weigh geopolitical heroism versus controversy; breakthroughs in Ukraine or Middle East talks could shift dynamics before October's announcement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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