Trader consensus on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field, with Yulia Navalnaya leading at 10.5% implied probability due to her sustained activism carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin legacy, closely trailed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 9.5% following his fresh nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy amid Russia's invasion. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's formal nomination and his January "Board of Peace" charter signing at Davos, though geopolitical controversies temper momentum. Pope Leo XIV's 4.2% nods to his recent Vatican diplomacy, including meetings with prior laureates. Nominations closed in January; the October 10 announcement looms as the key catalyst in this unpredictable race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 9.4%
唐納·川普 8%
教宗利奧十四 4.3%
$11,598,774 交易量
$11,598,774 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅
11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基
9%
唐納·川普
8%
教宗利奧十四
4%
國際法院
4%
聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處
3%
格蕾塔·童貝里
3%
塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼
3%
納倫德拉·莫迪
3%
查理·柯克
2%
習近平
2%
安東尼奧·古特雷斯
2%
馬斯克
2%
朱利安·阿桑奇
2%
哈立德·馬沙爾
1%
穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
1%
艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉
1%
雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安
1%
弗拉基米爾·普京
1%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
1%
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 9.4%
唐納·川普 8%
教宗利奧十四 4.3%
$11,598,774 交易量
$11,598,774 交易量
Oct 10, 2026
尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅
$79,663 交易量
11%
弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基
$401,402 交易量
9%
唐納·川普
$2,303,597 交易量
8%
教宗利奧十四
$475,693 交易量
4%
國際法院
$476,538 交易量
4%
聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處
$1,617,159 交易量
3%
格蕾塔·童貝里
$918,104 交易量
3%
塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼
$326,273 交易量
3%
納倫德拉·莫迪
$293,389 交易量
3%
查理·柯克
$481,398 交易量
2%
習近平
$754,319 交易量
2%
安東尼奧·古特雷斯
$142,791 交易量
2%
馬斯克
$510,321 交易量
2%
朱利安·阿桑奇
$329,410 交易量
2%
哈立德·馬沙爾
$204,908 交易量
1%
穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼
$551,904 交易量
1%
艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉
$542,632 交易量
1%
雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安
$386,740 交易量
1%
弗拉基米爾·普京
$493,034 交易量
1%
本雅明·內塔尼亞胡
$309,496 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field, with Yulia Navalnaya leading at 10.5% implied probability due to her sustained activism carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin legacy, closely trailed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 9.5% following his fresh nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy amid Russia's invasion. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's formal nomination and his January "Board of Peace" charter signing at Davos, though geopolitical controversies temper momentum. Pope Leo XIV's 4.2% nods to his recent Vatican diplomacy, including meetings with prior laureates. Nominations closed in January; the October 10 announcement looms as the key catalyst in this unpredictable race.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
市場開放時間： Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$11,598,774結束日期
Oct 10, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Trader consensus on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field, with Yulia Navalnaya leading at 10.5% implied probability due to her sustained activism carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin legacy, closely trailed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 9.5% following his fresh nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy amid Russia's invasion. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's formal nomination and his January "Board of Peace" charter signing at Davos, though geopolitical controversies temper momentum. Pope Leo XIV's 4.2% nods to his recent Vatican diplomacy, including meetings with prior laureates. Nominations closed in January; the October 10 announcement looms as the key catalyst in this unpredictable race.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.
If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$11,598,774結束日期
Oct 10, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize reflects a fragmented field, with Yulia Navalnaya leading at 10.5% implied probability due to her sustained activism carrying forward Alexei Navalny's anti-Putin legacy, closely trailed by Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 9.5% following his fresh nomination this week by University of Oslo professor Dag Øistein Endsjø for defending democracy amid Russia's invasion. Donald Trump's 7.5% stems from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna's formal nomination and his January "Board of Peace" charter signing at Davos, though geopolitical controversies temper momentum. Pope Leo XIV's 4.2% nods to his recent Vatican diplomacy, including meetings with prior laureates. Nominations closed in January; the October 10 announcement looms as the key catalyst in this unpredictable race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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