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政治·Maduro

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？

Market icon
政治·Maduro

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？

$2,591,019 交易量

2026-01-31
Polymarket

$2,591,019 交易量

Polymarket

12月31日

$195,570 交易量

15%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas amid longstanding narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments.** A March 26 New York court appearance saw a judge reject dismissal motions over legal fee disputes, upholding charges as prosecutors press forward despite Maduro's denials and claims of political kidnapping. No release has materialized, with reports of solitary confinement persisting; his case highlights tensions in U.S.-Venezuela relations, as acting president Delcy Rodríguez oversees a transitional government releasing political prisoners. Traders eye procedural hurdles like potential appeals, sentencing timelines, or diplomatic interventions, with no scheduled hearings announced in the past week.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,591,019
結束日期
2026-01-31
市場開放時間
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Nicolás Maduro remains in U.S. custody at Brooklyn's Metropolitan Detention Center following his January 3, 2026, capture during a U.S. military operation in Caracas amid longstanding narco-terrorism and drug trafficking indictments.** A March 26 New York court appearance saw a judge reject dismissal motions over legal fee disputes, upholding charges as prosecutors press forward despite Maduro's denials and claims of political kidnapping. No release has materialized, with reports of solitary confinement persisting; his case highlights tensions in U.S.-Venezuela relations, as acting president Delcy Rodríguez oversees a transitional government releasing political prisoners. Traders eye procedural hurdles like potential appeals, sentencing timelines, or diplomatic interventions, with no scheduled hearings announced in the past week.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,591,019
結束日期
2026-01-31
市場開放時間
Jan 3, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 14%, followed by "1月9日" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？" has generated $2.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 3, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？" is "12月31日" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1月9日" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "尼古拉斯·馬杜羅由… ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.