With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12—just eight days away—trader consensus on parties entering the National Assembly hinges on the 5% national threshold for proportional seats in the mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and 93 list seats. Recent polls from late March and early April show Fidesz-KDNP and challenger Tisza Party (led by Péter Magyar) far exceeding 5%, while far-right Mi Hazánk hovers at 5-8%, positioning it as a potential kingmaker amid opposition consolidation that sidelined smaller parties like DK and Momentum below threshold. Tisza's widening poll lead over Fidesz by 19-23 points in independent surveys has heightened focus on turnout and district wins, where Fidesz's incumbency advantage persists despite economic discontent and campaign tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$78,930 交易量

Mi Hazánk
77%

MKKP
4%

DK
4%
$78,930 交易量

Mi Hazánk
77%

MKKP
4%

DK
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party wins at least one seat in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of the election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 11:51 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party wins at least one seat in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of the election. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...With Hungary's parliamentary election set for April 12—just eight days away—trader consensus on parties entering the National Assembly hinges on the 5% national threshold for proportional seats in the mixed electoral system of 106 single-member districts and 93 list seats. Recent polls from late March and early April show Fidesz-KDNP and challenger Tisza Party (led by Péter Magyar) far exceeding 5%, while far-right Mi Hazánk hovers at 5-8%, positioning it as a potential kingmaker amid opposition consolidation that sidelined smaller parties like DK and Momentum below threshold. Tisza's widening poll lead over Fidesz by 19-23 points in independent surveys has heightened focus on turnout and district wins, where Fidesz's incumbency advantage persists despite economic discontent and campaign tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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