Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 6-9 US airstrikes in Somalia during March at 81% implied probability, driven by US Africa Command (AFRICOM) counterterrorism operations targeting al-Shabaab militants. AFRICOM confirmed four precision airstrikes in the past three weeks—most recently on March 20—aligning with February's seven strikes and a 2024 monthly average of seven to eight amid steady militant threats in southern Somalia. No major escalations, policy changes, or Somali government shifts have altered the operational tempo, positioning ≤5 strikes at 14.5% for potential pauses and higher tallies as low-probability outliers barring unexpected al-Shabaab offensives before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於6-9 81%
≤5 14.5%
10-13 4%
14-17 1.3%
$617,263 交易量
$617,263 交易量
Apr 4, 2026
≤5
15%
6-9
81%
10-13
4%
14-17
1%
18-21
1%
22+
<1%
6-9 81%
≤5 14.5%
10-13 4%
14-17 1.3%
$617,263 交易量
$617,263 交易量
Apr 4, 2026
≤5
$312,593 交易量
15%
6-9
$14,229 交易量
81%
10-13
$28,825 交易量
4%
14-17
$149,293 交易量
1%
18-21
$76,200 交易量
1%
22+
$36,123 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.
This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.
市場開放時間： Feb 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ET
交易量
$617,263結束日期
Apr 4, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.This market will resolve according to the number of independent incidents of US-initiated drone, missile, or air strikes on the soil of Somalia that occur between March 1 and March 31, 2026, and are announced by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) by April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
An incident of a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike refers to any strike or series of strikes described by AFRICOM as a contiguous incident in a single region. Each AFRICOM press release describing a strike or series of strikes will count as one incident, unless AFRICOM explicitly distinguishes incidents as separate strike events. For example, the strikes on January 25-26, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36183/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) and January 12, 2026 (https://www.africom.mil/pressrelease/36174/us-forces-conduct-strikes-targeting-al-shabaab) would have counted as single incidents, even though they included multiple individual strikes.
The date of a qualifying strike incident will be determined by the date provided by AFRICOM. Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM to have occurred at least partially in the listed period will count (e.g. a strike incident announced to have occurred from February 28-March 1, 2026, would count). If the date of an announced strike is not released by AFRICOM, a consensus of credible reporting may be used to determine the timing of a strike incident. In this case, a strike will be considered to have occurred in the specified period if it is determined that it occurred in that period, in Eastern Time (timeframes partially, but not fully, in this period will count). Any strike incident announced by AFRICOM after April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET will not count, regardless of the timing of the strike.
This market will remain open until April 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by that time, it will not count, regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) (https://www.africom.mil/media-gallery/press-releases); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the timing of an announced strike incident.
交易量
$617,263結束日期
Apr 4, 2026市場開放時間
Feb 26, 2026, 5:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors 6-9 US airstrikes in Somalia during March at 81% implied probability, driven by US Africa Command (AFRICOM) counterterrorism operations targeting al-Shabaab militants. AFRICOM confirmed four precision airstrikes in the past three weeks—most recently on March 20—aligning with February's seven strikes and a 2024 monthly average of seven to eight amid steady militant threats in southern Somalia. No major escalations, policy changes, or Somali government shifts have altered the operational tempo, positioning ≤5 strikes at 14.5% for potential pauses and higher tallies as low-probability outliers barring unexpected al-Shabaab offensives before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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