2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

Name: 2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？
Start: 2025-11-05T16:50:56.564Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

地緣政治·移民

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

Dec 31

30至40萬 43%

40萬到50萬 24%

20-30萬 18%

50萬到60萬 9%

NEW

Dec 31, 2026

少於20萬

$0 交易量

20-30萬

$0 交易量

18%

30至40萬

$0 交易量

38%

40萬到50萬

$0 交易量

24%

50萬到60萬

$0 交易量

60至70萬

$0 交易量

70萬至80萬

$0 交易量

80萬到90萬

$0 交易量

90萬-100萬

$0 交易量

>1百萬

$0 交易量

30至40萬 43%

40萬到50萬 24%

20-30萬 18%

50萬到60萬 9%

NEW

Dec 31, 2026

少於20萬

$0 交易量

20-30萬

$0 交易量

18%

30至40萬

$0 交易量

38%

40萬到50萬

$0 交易量

24%

50萬到60萬

$0 交易量

60至70萬

$0 交易量

70萬至80萬

$0 交易量

80萬到90萬

$0 交易量

90萬-100萬

$0 交易量

>1百萬

$0 交易量

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 300,000-400,000 deportations in 2026 as most likely at 38.5%, aligning with historical U.S. peaks under Obama-era ICE operations around 400,000 annually, amid logistical constraints like limited detention beds and personnel. Trump's pledges for historic mass removals, bolstered by border czar Tom Homan's appointment and plans for military logistics plus congressional funding boosts, drive optimism for 400,000-500,000 (23.5%) but face headwinds from sanctuary city resistance, legal challenges, and labor market dependencies. Recent DHS transition team reports highlight initial focus on criminal noncitizens, tempering >1 million odds below 5%, with 2025 appropriations debates as a key near-term catalyst.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 22, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30至40萬" at 38%, followed by "40萬到50萬" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 5, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" is "30至40萬" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "40萬到50萬" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 38¢ for "30至40萬" in the "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 38% chance that "30至40萬" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 38¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 62¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" market has an active community of 125 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？

規則

盤口背景

盤口背景

評論 (125)

頂級持倉者

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？"?

What are the current odds for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？"?

How will "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" be resolved?

Can I follow "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？"?

What does a price of 38¢ for "30至40萬" mean?

When does the "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？" market close?

What are traders saying about "2026年，特朗普會驅逐多少人？"?

What is Polymarket?