Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and elevated geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking price pressures. The dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, likely later, offsetting a softening labor market where February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%. A 14.5% chance of a 25 bps cut captures hopes for easing if upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) or April FOMC data weaken further, while hike odds at 8.8% hedge persistent inflation upside.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於No change 73%
25 bps decrease 15%
25 bps increase 8.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,077,004 交易量
$2,077,004 交易量
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
15%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
9%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 73%
25 bps decrease 15%
25 bps increase 8.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$2,077,004 交易量
$2,077,004 交易量
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$40,761 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$22,904 交易量
15%
No change
$31,623 交易量
73%
25 bps increase
$1,937,602 交易量
9%
50+ bps increase
$44,114 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and elevated geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking price pressures. The dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, likely later, offsetting a softening labor market where February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%. A 14.5% chance of a 25 bps cut captures hopes for easing if upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) or April FOMC data weaken further, while hike odds at 8.8% hedge persistent inflation upside.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
交易量
$2,077,004結束日期
Jul 29, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and elevated geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking price pressures. The dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, likely later, offsetting a softening labor market where February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%. A 14.5% chance of a 25 bps cut captures hopes for easing if upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) or April FOMC data weaken further, while hike odds at 8.8% hedge persistent inflation upside.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$2,077,004結束日期
Jul 29, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 72.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Committee's March 17-18 decision to hold the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and elevated geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict stoking price pressures. The dot plot median forecasts just one 25 basis point cut sometime in 2026, likely later, offsetting a softening labor market where February nonfarm payrolls fell 92,000 and unemployment rose to 4.4%. A 14.5% chance of a 25 bps cut captures hopes for easing if upcoming March CPI (April 10 release) or April FOMC data weaken further, while hike odds at 8.8% hedge persistent inflation upside.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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