Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Finland as the clear frontrunner at 35.6% implied probability for Eurovision 2026 victory, propelled by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's "Liekinheitin," which dominated UMK in late February and now leads OGAE fan polls—recently earning 12 points from OGAE France—while topping charts alongside Denmark's entry and blending jury-approved production with massive televote energy akin to 2023's near-winner. France's Monroe surges to 13.2% on the strength of her operatic "Regarde!" standout live debut this week, boosting Big 5 pre-qualification momentum. Denmark holds third at 10.2% via Søren Torpegaard Lund's emotive "Før vi går hjem," favored for Semi-Final 2; Australia and Greece tie challengers amid rising buzz for Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse" and Akylas' "Ferto." With Vienna semis May 12/14, early rehearsals and bloc voting could shift dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2026年歐洲歌唱大賽冠軍
2026年歐洲歌唱大賽冠軍
芬蘭 35.7%
法國 13.4%
丹麥 10.2%
希臘 6.5%
$53,109,498 交易量
$53,109,498 交易量

芬蘭
36%

法國
13%

丹麥
10%

希臘
6%

澳洲
6%

以色列
4%

瑞典
4%

烏克蘭
2%

義大利
2%

羅馬尼亞
2%

捷克
1%

賽普勒斯
1%

馬耳他
1%

保加利亞
1%

克羅地亞
1%

德國
1%

盧森堡
1%

比利時
1%

挪威
1%

瑞士
1%

英國
1%

波蘭
1%

阿爾巴尼亞
<1%

奧地利
<1%

愛沙尼亞
<1%

拉脫維亞
<1%

摩爾多瓦
<1%

葡萄牙
<1%

聖馬力諾
<1%

亞美尼亞
<1%

阿塞拜疆
<1%

喬治亞
<1%

立陶宛
<1%

蒙特內哥羅
<1%

塞爾維亞
<1%
芬蘭 35.7%
法國 13.4%
丹麥 10.2%
希臘 6.5%
$53,109,498 交易量
$53,109,498 交易量

芬蘭
36%

法國
13%

丹麥
10%

希臘
6%

澳洲
6%

以色列
4%

瑞典
4%

烏克蘭
2%

義大利
2%

羅馬尼亞
2%

捷克
1%

賽普勒斯
1%

馬耳他
1%

保加利亞
1%

克羅地亞
1%

德國
1%

盧森堡
1%

比利時
1%

挪威
1%

瑞士
1%

英國
1%

波蘭
1%

阿爾巴尼亞
<1%

奧地利
<1%

愛沙尼亞
<1%

拉脫維亞
<1%

摩爾多瓦
<1%

葡萄牙
<1%

聖馬力諾
<1%

亞美尼亞
<1%

阿塞拜疆
<1%

喬治亞
<1%

立陶宛
<1%

蒙特內哥羅
<1%

塞爾維亞
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市場開放時間: Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Finland as the clear frontrunner at 35.6% implied probability for Eurovision 2026 victory, propelled by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's "Liekinheitin," which dominated UMK in late February and now leads OGAE fan polls—recently earning 12 points from OGAE France—while topping charts alongside Denmark's entry and blending jury-approved production with massive televote energy akin to 2023's near-winner. France's Monroe surges to 13.2% on the strength of her operatic "Regarde!" standout live debut this week, boosting Big 5 pre-qualification momentum. Denmark holds third at 10.2% via Søren Torpegaard Lund's emotive "Før vi går hjem," favored for Semi-Final 2; Australia and Greece tie challengers amid rising buzz for Delta Goodrem's "Eclipse" and Akylas' "Ferto." With Vienna semis May 12/14, early rehearsals and bloc voting could shift dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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