Recent polling through May 2026 shows the Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party in a tight popular-vote contest, with the PQ at roughly 30 percent and the PLQ close behind, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec has recovered modestly under new leader Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s resignation. Seat projections nevertheless favor the PQ because of stronger Francophone support and more efficient geographic distribution across ridings. Traders assign the PQ a 57.5 percent implied probability of forming the next government, reflecting these structural advantages and the October 5, 2026, election timeline. The PLQ trails at 27 percent amid leadership transition questions, and the CAQ sits at 16.5 percent despite recent gains. Minor parties remain below 1 percent in both polls and market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNgười chiến thắng trong cuộc Tổng tuyển cử Quebec
Người chiến thắng trong cuộc Tổng tuyển cử Quebec
PQ 57%
PLQ 27%
CAQ 17%
PCQ <1%
$555,144 KL.
$555,144 KL.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
57%
PLQ
27%
CAQ
17%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 57%
PLQ 27%
CAQ 17%
PCQ <1%
$555,144 KL.
$555,144 KL.
Oct 5, 2026
PQ
$56,100 KL.
57%
PLQ
$59,539 KL.
27%
CAQ
$67,649 KL.
17%
PCQ
$170,803 KL.
<1%
QS
$71,772 KL.
<1%
PVQ
$129,281 KL.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling through May 2026 shows the Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party in a tight popular-vote contest, with the PQ at roughly 30 percent and the PLQ close behind, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec has recovered modestly under new leader Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s resignation. Seat projections nevertheless favor the PQ because of stronger Francophone support and more efficient geographic distribution across ridings. Traders assign the PQ a 57.5 percent implied probability of forming the next government, reflecting these structural advantages and the October 5, 2026, election timeline. The PLQ trails at 27 percent amid leadership transition questions, and the CAQ sits at 16.5 percent despite recent gains. Minor parties remain below 1 percent in both polls and market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Thị trường mở: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$555,144Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling through May 2026 shows the Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party in a tight popular-vote contest, with the PQ at roughly 30 percent and the PLQ close behind, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec has recovered modestly under new leader Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s resignation. Seat projections nevertheless favor the PQ because of stronger Francophone support and more efficient geographic distribution across ridings. Traders assign the PQ a 57.5 percent implied probability of forming the next government, reflecting these structural advantages and the October 5, 2026, election timeline. The PLQ trails at 27 percent amid leadership transition questions, and the CAQ sits at 16.5 percent despite recent gains. Minor parties remain below 1 percent in both polls and market pricing.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 125 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Khối lượng
$555,144Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling through May 2026 shows the Parti Québécois and Quebec Liberal Party in a tight popular-vote contest, with the PQ at roughly 30 percent and the PLQ close behind, while the governing Coalition Avenir Québec has recovered modestly under new leader Christine Fréchette following François Legault’s resignation. Seat projections nevertheless favor the PQ because of stronger Francophone support and more efficient geographic distribution across ridings. Traders assign the PQ a 57.5 percent implied probability of forming the next government, reflecting these structural advantages and the October 5, 2026, election timeline. The PLQ trails at 27 percent amid leadership transition questions, and the CAQ sits at 16.5 percent despite recent gains. Minor parties remain below 1 percent in both polls and market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp