Peru’s June 7 presidential runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez remains closely contested in recent polling, with the two candidates separated by just a few points and roughly 14 percent undecided. This tight contest, following a fragmented first round that produced only 74 percent turnout amid logistical delays, null-ballot issues, and voter distrust, is the primary driver keeping implied probabilities clustered around 70–80 percent. Polarization between the right-wing and left-leaning bases, combined with high historical participation rates near 81 percent in prior runoffs, supports expectations of modestly higher engagement than April. Key factors that could push turnout higher include intensified get-out-the-vote efforts in rural and highland regions, clearer policy contrasts emerging in the final weeks, or reduced abstention if confidence in the process improves; conversely, continued skepticism or weather-related access issues could keep participation near first-round levels.