The Polymarket consensus favoring Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis reflects expectations that Ireland’s single transferable vote system will deliver strong second and subsequent preferences from Labour, Green Party, and People Before Profit voters, allowing him to overtake Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan despite her narrow lead in first-preference polling. A mid-May Ipsos B&A survey placed Boylan at 21 percent and Ennis at 18 percent, with independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent, yet analysts note Ennis’s stronger transfer potential from the fragmented left-leaning field. Recent campaign developments, including Ennis’s legal response to online claims, have not materially altered trader assessments ahead of the May 22 vote to fill the Dáil vacancy.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDaniel Ennis 73%
Janice Boylan 18.7%
Gerry Hutch 5.5%
Ray McAdam 1.4%
$1,141,808 KL.
$1,141,808 KL.
Daniel Ennis
73%
Janice Boylan
19%
Gerry Hutch
6%
Ray McAdam
1%
Malachy Steenson
1%
Ian Noel Smyth
<1%
Janet Horner
<1%
Gillian Sherratt
<1%
John Stephens
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
Mary Fitzpatrick
<1%
Daniel Ennis 73%
Janice Boylan 18.7%
Gerry Hutch 5.5%
Ray McAdam 1.4%
$1,141,808 KL.
$1,141,808 KL.
Daniel Ennis
73%
Janice Boylan
19%
Gerry Hutch
6%
Ray McAdam
1%
Malachy Steenson
1%
Ian Noel Smyth
<1%
Janet Horner
<1%
Gillian Sherratt
<1%
John Stephens
<1%
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin
<1%
Séamas McGrattan
<1%
Mary Fitzpatrick
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 20, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann.
If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Polymarket consensus favoring Social Democrats candidate Daniel Ennis reflects expectations that Ireland’s single transferable vote system will deliver strong second and subsequent preferences from Labour, Green Party, and People Before Profit voters, allowing him to overtake Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan despite her narrow lead in first-preference polling. A mid-May Ipsos B&A survey placed Boylan at 21 percent and Ennis at 18 percent, with independent Gerry Hutch at 14 percent, yet analysts note Ennis’s stronger transfer potential from the fragmented left-leaning field. Recent campaign developments, including Ennis’s legal response to online claims, have not materially altered trader assessments ahead of the May 22 vote to fill the Dáil vacancy.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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