Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)
Cut–Pause–Pause 100.0%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
Pause–Pause–Pause <1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$425,543 KL.
$425,543 KL.
Mar 18, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
Yes
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Other
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
Cut–Pause–Pause 100.0%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
Pause–Pause–Pause <1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$425,543 KL.
$425,543 KL.
Mar 18, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$0 KL.
Yes
Cut–Cut–Pause
$77,631 KL.
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
$93,636 KL.
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
$17,102 KL.
No
Other
$0 KL.
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$0 KL.
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$198,337 KL.
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
$19,540 KL.
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
$19,297 KL.
No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ET
Khối lượng
$425,543Ngày kết thúc
Mar 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: December 9–10, 2025; January 27–28, 2026; and March 17-18, 2026.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
If no statement is released for the March 2026 meeting by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$425,543Ngày kết thúc
Mar 18, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 4, 2025, 12:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kết quả đề xuất: Yes
Không tranh chấp
Kết quả cuối cùng: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a Federal Reserve rate cut in December followed by pauses in January and March, with 100% implied probability, driven by November's softer-than-expected CPI print showing core inflation at 2.7% year-over-year and resilient but cooling labor markets evidenced by October's 12,000 payroll gain. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent data-dependent stance amid a "solid" economy, tempering aggressive easing expectations after September's 50-basis-point cut. Supporting factors include steady disinflation toward the 2% target and balanced risks, per FOMC minutes. Challenges could arise from hotter December CPI on December 11 or robust jobs data on December 6, potentially shifting odds toward "Other" outcomes if growth surprises upward.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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