OpenAI’s accelerated release cadence after launching GPT-5.5 on April 23 has become the main driver behind trader sentiment in this market, with the June 30 outcome now implying a 92 percent probability. Internal signals, including early Codex backend logs confirming routable inference by mid-May, indicate that training and safety evaluations for the next large language model iteration are progressing faster than the typical 45-to-60-day gap seen in prior 2026 updates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude updates and Google’s Gemini advancements continues to push OpenAI toward quicker enhancements in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. Traders are monitoring the upcoming earnings call and any developer conference appearances for official signals, while noting that unresolved safety benchmarks or regulatory scrutiny could still shift timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$89,218 KL.
May 22, 2026
May 22
6%
May 31
17%
June 5
45%
June 8
54%
June 15
82%
June 30
92%
July 31
92%
$89,218 KL.
May 22
$19,703 KL.
6%
May 31
$26,855 KL.
17%
June 5
$2,002 KL.
45%
June 8
$3,709 KL.
54%
June 15
$6,128 KL.
82%
June 30
$11,274 KL.
92%
July 31
$6,390 KL.
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s accelerated release cadence after launching GPT-5.5 on April 23 has become the main driver behind trader sentiment in this market, with the June 30 outcome now implying a 92 percent probability. Internal signals, including early Codex backend logs confirming routable inference by mid-May, indicate that training and safety evaluations for the next large language model iteration are progressing faster than the typical 45-to-60-day gap seen in prior 2026 updates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude updates and Google’s Gemini advancements continues to push OpenAI toward quicker enhancements in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. Traders are monitoring the upcoming earnings call and any developer conference appearances for official signals, while noting that unresolved safety benchmarks or regulatory scrutiny could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 1, 2026, 8:52 AM ET
Khối lượng
$89,218Ngày kết thúc
Jul 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 1, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s accelerated release cadence after launching GPT-5.5 on April 23 has become the main driver behind trader sentiment in this market, with the June 30 outcome now implying a 92 percent probability. Internal signals, including early Codex backend logs confirming routable inference by mid-May, indicate that training and safety evaluations for the next large language model iteration are progressing faster than the typical 45-to-60-day gap seen in prior 2026 updates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude updates and Google’s Gemini advancements continues to push OpenAI toward quicker enhancements in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. Traders are monitoring the upcoming earnings call and any developer conference appearances for official signals, while noting that unresolved safety benchmarks or regulatory scrutiny could still shift timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$89,218Ngày kết thúc
Jul 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 1, 2026, 8:52 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s accelerated release cadence after launching GPT-5.5 on April 23 has become the main driver behind trader sentiment in this market, with the June 30 outcome now implying a 92 percent probability. Internal signals, including early Codex backend logs confirming routable inference by mid-May, indicate that training and safety evaluations for the next large language model iteration are progressing faster than the typical 45-to-60-day gap seen in prior 2026 updates. Competitive pressure from Anthropic’s Claude updates and Google’s Gemini advancements continues to push OpenAI toward quicker enhancements in reasoning, coding, and agentic capabilities. Traders are monitoring the upcoming earnings call and any developer conference appearances for official signals, while noting that unresolved safety benchmarks or regulatory scrutiny could still shift timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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