Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 release on July 24, 2026, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August. The model leads key benchmarks, including an Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score of 61 and top rankings on agentic and coding evaluations, outpacing recent Google Gemini 3.6 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family. Its combination of frontier reasoning, competitive pricing, and demonstrated capabilities in complex workflows has solidified market-implied odds. A late-August breakthrough from another lab—such as an unexpected OpenAI or Google update exceeding current benchmarks—remains the main risk that could shift sentiment before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 94%
OpenAI 4.0%
Google 1.8%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,558,476 KL.
$1,558,476 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
94%
OpenAI
4%
2%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 4.0%
Google 1.8%
DeepSeek <1%
$1,558,476 KL.
$1,558,476 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$334,020 KL.
94%
OpenAI
$143,988 KL.
4%
$124,668 KL.
2%
DeepSeek
$140,316 KL.
<1%
Meta
$136,012 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$129,134 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$109,031 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$133,250 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$107,002 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 KL.
<1%
Bytedance
$88,729 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$12,844 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$23,168 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 release on July 24, 2026, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August. The model leads key benchmarks, including an Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score of 61 and top rankings on agentic and coding evaluations, outpacing recent Google Gemini 3.6 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family. Its combination of frontier reasoning, competitive pricing, and demonstrated capabilities in complex workflows has solidified market-implied odds. A late-August breakthrough from another lab—such as an unexpected OpenAI or Google update exceeding current benchmarks—remains the main risk that could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,558,476Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 release on July 24, 2026, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August. The model leads key benchmarks, including an Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score of 61 and top rankings on agentic and coding evaluations, outpacing recent Google Gemini 3.6 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family. Its combination of frontier reasoning, competitive pricing, and demonstrated capabilities in complex workflows has solidified market-implied odds. A late-August breakthrough from another lab—such as an unexpected OpenAI or Google update exceeding current benchmarks—remains the main risk that could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$1,558,476Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 release on July 24, 2026, anchors trader consensus at a 93.5% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August. The model leads key benchmarks, including an Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score of 61 and top rankings on agentic and coding evaluations, outpacing recent Google Gemini 3.6 variants and OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 family. Its combination of frontier reasoning, competitive pricing, and demonstrated capabilities in complex workflows has solidified market-implied odds. A late-August breakthrough from another lab—such as an unexpected OpenAI or Google update exceeding current benchmarks—remains the main risk that could shift sentiment before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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