Anthropic's early September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds by securing the top positions across independent leaderboards, including LM Arena Elo ratings and composite benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini series on verified metrics like intelligence indices and specialized evaluations as of mid-September. With roughly 18 days until resolution, the strong trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities, though a surprise competitor update or leaderboard methodology shift could still narrow the gap before the end of the month.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 91%
Meta 4.3%
OpenAI 3.3%
Google 1.4%
$102,517 KL.
$102,517 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
Meta
4%
OpenAI
3%
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Meta 4.3%
OpenAI 3.3%
Google 1.4%
$102,517 KL.
$102,517 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$44,303 KL.
91%
Meta
$10,231 KL.
4%
OpenAI
$12,191 KL.
3%
$5,916 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,859 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,872 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$3,952 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$3,229 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$4,143 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$769 KL.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 KL.
<1%
Thinky
$1,313 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$930 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,554 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$436 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$920 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$2,658 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$1,360 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's early September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds by securing the top positions across independent leaderboards, including LM Arena Elo ratings and composite benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini series on verified metrics like intelligence indices and specialized evaluations as of mid-September. With roughly 18 days until resolution, the strong trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities, though a surprise competitor update or leaderboard methodology shift could still narrow the gap before the end of the month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$102,517Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's early September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds by securing the top positions across independent leaderboards, including LM Arena Elo ratings and composite benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini series on verified metrics like intelligence indices and specialized evaluations as of mid-September. With roughly 18 days until resolution, the strong trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities, though a surprise competitor update or leaderboard methodology shift could still narrow the gap before the end of the month.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$102,517Ngày kết thúc
Oct 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's early September 2026 releases of Claude Fable 5.1 and related Opus variants have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds by securing the top positions across independent leaderboards, including LM Arena Elo ratings and composite benchmarks measuring reasoning, coding, and agentic performance. These large language models outperform OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and Google's Gemini series on verified metrics like intelligence indices and specialized evaluations as of mid-September. With roughly 18 days until resolution, the strong trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in demonstrated capabilities, though a surprise competitor update or leaderboard methodology shift could still narrow the gap before the end of the month.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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