Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 92% implied probability for OpenAI's GPT-5.5 large language model releasing today, April 23, driven by fresh leaks from the company's Codex coding tool exposing the "Spud" model with superior coding speed, token efficiency, and benchmark gains over GPT-5.4. Sam Altman's recent tease of excitement "for this week," combined with anomalous Polymarket wallet activity loading heavily into April 23 shares, has fueled this surge from under 10% odds last week. Historical patterns of OpenAI's stealth drops support the positioning, though realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews, or a quiet rollout to select users that delays public access beyond midnight ET, potentially shifting odds to April 24.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtApril 23 92%
April 24 3.8%
April 30 1.4%
No release by April 30 1.1%
$1,006,289 KL.
$1,006,289 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
April 23
92%
April 24
4%
April 25
1%
April 26
1%
April 27
1%
April 28
1%
April 29
<1%
April 30
1%
No release by April 30
1%
April 23 92%
April 24 3.8%
April 30 1.4%
No release by April 30 1.1%
$1,006,289 KL.
$1,006,289 KL.
Apr 30, 2026
April 23
$421,358 KL.
92%
April 24
$41,086 KL.
4%
April 25
$26,964 KL.
1%
April 26
$25,214 KL.
1%
April 27
$25,336 KL.
1%
April 28
$34,507 KL.
1%
April 29
$31,573 KL.
<1%
April 30
$52,507 KL.
1%
No release by April 30
$74,999 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 92% implied probability for OpenAI's GPT-5.5 large language model releasing today, April 23, driven by fresh leaks from the company's Codex coding tool exposing the "Spud" model with superior coding speed, token efficiency, and benchmark gains over GPT-5.4. Sam Altman's recent tease of excitement "for this week," combined with anomalous Polymarket wallet activity loading heavily into April 23 shares, has fueled this surge from under 10% odds last week. Historical patterns of OpenAI's stealth drops support the positioning, though realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews, or a quiet rollout to select users that delays public access beyond midnight ET, potentially shifting odds to April 24.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,006,289Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 92% implied probability for OpenAI's GPT-5.5 large language model releasing today, April 23, driven by fresh leaks from the company's Codex coding tool exposing the "Spud" model with superior coding speed, token efficiency, and benchmark gains over GPT-5.4. Sam Altman's recent tease of excitement "for this week," combined with anomalous Polymarket wallet activity loading heavily into April 23 shares, has fueled this surge from under 10% odds last week. Historical patterns of OpenAI's stealth drops support the positioning, though realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews, or a quiet rollout to select users that delays public access beyond midnight ET, potentially shifting odds to April 24.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,006,289Ngày kết thúc
Apr 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around a 92% implied probability for OpenAI's GPT-5.5 large language model releasing today, April 23, driven by fresh leaks from the company's Codex coding tool exposing the "Spud" model with superior coding speed, token efficiency, and benchmark gains over GPT-5.4. Sam Altman's recent tease of excitement "for this week," combined with anomalous Polymarket wallet activity loading heavily into April 23 shares, has fueled this surge from under 10% odds last week. Historical patterns of OpenAI's stealth drops support the positioning, though realistic challenges include last-minute technical hurdles, regulatory reviews, or a quiet rollout to select users that delays public access beyond midnight ET, potentially shifting odds to April 24.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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