Recent leaks of a GPT-5.6 identifier in OpenAI’s internal Codex routing logs, combined with the company’s accelerated post-GPT-5.5 cadence since the April 23 release, have anchored trader sentiment around a mid-June window. No official announcement, model card, or API listing has appeared as of early June, yet the pattern of rapid iterations and competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus 4.8 supports the 58% implied probability for June 15–21. The elevated 28.5% chance of no release by June 28 reflects ongoing uncertainty typical of unconfirmed frontier large language model timelines, where internal testing can extend without public signals. Upcoming developer conferences and potential Codex updates remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these aggregated trader odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 15–June 21 46%
Not released by June 28 22%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
June 8–June 14 9%
$62,657 Обс.
$62,657 Обс.
Jun 28, 2026
June 1–June 7
1%
June 8–June 14
9%
June 15–June 21
58%
June 22–June 28
18%
Not released by June 28
29%
June 15–June 21 46%
Not released by June 28 22%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
June 8–June 14 9%
$62,657 Обс.
$62,657 Обс.
Jun 28, 2026
June 1–June 7
$12,321 Обс.
1%
June 8–June 14
$11,741 Обс.
9%
June 15–June 21
$2,721 Обс.
58%
June 22–June 28
$2,010 Обс.
18%
Not released by June 28
$6,724 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of a GPT-5.6 identifier in OpenAI’s internal Codex routing logs, combined with the company’s accelerated post-GPT-5.5 cadence since the April 23 release, have anchored trader sentiment around a mid-June window. No official announcement, model card, or API listing has appeared as of early June, yet the pattern of rapid iterations and competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus 4.8 supports the 58% implied probability for June 15–21. The elevated 28.5% chance of no release by June 28 reflects ongoing uncertainty typical of unconfirmed frontier large language model timelines, where internal testing can extend without public signals. Upcoming developer conferences and potential Codex updates remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these aggregated trader odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$62,657Дата завершення
Jun 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of a GPT-5.6 identifier in OpenAI’s internal Codex routing logs, combined with the company’s accelerated post-GPT-5.5 cadence since the April 23 release, have anchored trader sentiment around a mid-June window. No official announcement, model card, or API listing has appeared as of early June, yet the pattern of rapid iterations and competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus 4.8 supports the 58% implied probability for June 15–21. The elevated 28.5% chance of no release by June 28 reflects ongoing uncertainty typical of unconfirmed frontier large language model timelines, where internal testing can extend without public signals. Upcoming developer conferences and potential Codex updates remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these aggregated trader odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$62,657Дата завершення
Jun 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of a GPT-5.6 identifier in OpenAI’s internal Codex routing logs, combined with the company’s accelerated post-GPT-5.5 cadence since the April 23 release, have anchored trader sentiment around a mid-June window. No official announcement, model card, or API listing has appeared as of early June, yet the pattern of rapid iterations and competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus 4.8 supports the 58% implied probability for June 15–21. The elevated 28.5% chance of no release by June 28 reflects ongoing uncertainty typical of unconfirmed frontier large language model timelines, where internal testing can extend without public signals. Upcoming developer conferences and potential Codex updates remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these aggregated trader odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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