OpenAI’s recent cadence of point releases—most notably GPT-5.6 Sol in July 2026—has shifted trader expectations for a true generational GPT-6 model, leaving it undated and unlikely before late 2026. The August 1 announcement of an internal “Astra” family, positioned for long-running task improvements, carries no timeline, pricing, or public preview, reinforcing the view that a major pre-training run and safety evaluations remain ahead. Competitive pressure from Anthropic and Google models, combined with OpenAI’s emphasis on incremental capability tiers rather than version leaps, further supports market-implied odds that heavily discount any near-term release. Key upcoming catalysts include developer conferences, earnings commentary, or credible leaks on training completion that could alter sentiment.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоOpenAI publishes research showing Astra solved 10 major open math problems
OpenAI disclosed that Astra autonomously solved ten open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, demonstrating advanced AI capabilities. This research milestone highlighted Astra's significance but did not correspond to a public product launch or GPT-6 release.
No public release or announcement of GPT-6 as of early August 2026
Despite speculation and market activity, OpenAI had not publicly released GPT-6 or announced a release date by early August 2026, with the latest models being GPT-5.5 and GPT-5.6, both part of the GPT-5 series.
OpenAI confirms stronger pre-release model exists but no GPT-6 launch
August 21, 2026 drops to 17%13%
OpenAI acknowledged a more capable pre-release model beyond GPT-5.6 but did not announce GPT-6's public availability, maintaining market uncertainty and low confidence in a 2025 release.
OpenAI announces Astra as next major model, not branded GPT-6
December 31, 2026 rises to 91%3%
OpenAI introduced Astra, its next major model family, through a research announcement highlighting its ability to solve ten long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science. Astra is not publicly released, has no confirmed release date, and OpenAI has not confirmed it as GPT-6.
OpenAI introduces Astra, its next major AI model family, not branded as GPT-6
OpenAI announced Astra, a new model family that solved ten long-standing open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science. Astra is not publicly released, has no pricing or launch date, and OpenAI has not confirmed if it will be branded GPT-6, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI announces Astra model, not branded as GPT-6
August 7, 2026 plunges to 8%41%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a new model solving open problems in math and computer science, but explicitly did not brand it as GPT-6. No public release date or ChatGPT availability was provided, signaling no GPT-6 launch at that time and causing market confidence in a near-term GPT-6 release to drop sharply.
OpenAI announces next major model Astra, not branded as GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a new major model solving open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6. This announcement clarified that GPT-6 remains unreleased and unnamed, pushing expectations further into late 2026 or 2027.
OpenAI announces Astra, a new major model not confirmed as GPT-6
OpenAI introduced Astra on August 1, 2026, a new major AI model with research achievements but no public release, pricing, or confirmation that it is branded GPT-6. This announcement delayed expectations for a GPT-6 launch within 2026.
OpenAI announces new model Astra, not named GPT-6
OpenAI introduced Astra, a new model solving open problems in math and computer science, but clarified it is not GPT-6, leaving GPT-6's public release date uncertain and pushing expectations beyond 2025.
OpenAI introduces Astra, next major model not branded GPT-6
December 31, 2026 plunges to 1%48%
OpenAI announced Astra, a new model solving major mathematical problems, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, leaving the market uncertain about the timing and branding of the next generation model.
OpenAI announces Astra, next major model family, not named GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra as its next major model family without associating it with the GPT-6 name or providing a release date. This clarified that no GPT-6 model was publicly available or announced, impacting market expectations.
OpenAI announces Astra model solving ten open math problems, no public release date
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra by publishing solutions to ten open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, showcasing advanced AI capabilities. Astra was not made publicly available, nor was it confirmed as GPT-6, keeping the market's GPT-6 release expectations low.
OpenAI announces Astra model internally, not branded as GPT-6 or publicly released
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a next major model solving complex math problems, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, leaving market uncertainty about public availability.
OpenAI announces Astra model, not named GPT-6, with no public release date
August 14, 2026 drops to 2%13%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a new model solving open problems but not branded as GPT-6 and without a public release date or availability. This announcement did not fulfill the market's criteria for GPT-6 release, leading to further price drops.
Sam Altman demos Astra to US lawmakers, but no public launch announced
In late July 2026, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman privately demonstrated Astra to US lawmakers, confirming its existence but not announcing a public release or GPT-6 branding, leaving the market without a qualifying public GPT-6 launch.
OpenAI has not listed GPT-6 in public model catalog or release pages
As of late July 2026, OpenAI's official sources showed no GPT-6 release date, model card, or public API, confirming no public launch or announcement had occurred, sustaining market skepticism about a 2026 GPT-6 release.
No official GPT-6 release date or public API found in OpenAI sources
August 14, 2026 plunges to 15%34%
As of late July 2026, OpenAI's public documentation and product pages showed no GPT-6 release or API, reinforcing market skepticism about a 2025 launch and pushing probabilities lower.
OpenAI public sources show no GPT-6 release or public API availability
As of late July 2026, OpenAI's official model catalog and product pages list no GPT-6 release date or public access, confirming no public launch within the analysis window.
OpenAI introduces Astra, a major model not branded as GPT-6
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI introduced Astra, a major model solving open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, but did not release it publicly or confirm it as GPT-6, maintaining uncertainty about GPT-6's release.
Prediction markets show rising odds for GPT-6 release by September 30, 2026
September 30, 2026 surges to 70%16%
Despite no official announcement, prediction markets like Polymarket and Myriad saw increasing odds (around 77-78%) for a public GPT-6 release by September 30, 2026, reflecting market speculation and anticipation rather than confirmed plans.
OpenAI demonstrates Astra model to US lawmakers, but no GPT-6 branding announced
On July 27, 2026, OpenAI privately demoed Astra, its next major model family, to US lawmakers. Astra was introduced through research achievements rather than a public product launch, with no confirmation it would be branded GPT-6 or released soon, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI confirms existence of stronger pre-release model beyond GPT-5.6
On July 21, 2026, OpenAI disclosed that an even more capable pre-release model participated in internal cybersecurity evaluations, indicating progress beyond GPT-5.6. However, no public release or branding as GPT-6 was announced, sustaining market speculation and uncertainty.
Community leaks confirm GPT-6 model exists but no public release date
August 31, 2026 plunges to 43%16%
Leaked information confirmed GPT-6 as a next-generation model in development, but OpenAI had not announced a public release date, sustaining market uncertainty and low probabilities for a 2025 launch.
OpenAI confirms existence of a stronger pre-release model beyond GPT-5.6
OpenAI disclosed that GPT-5.6 Sol and an even more capable pre-release model participated in internal cybersecurity evaluations, signaling progress toward a next-generation model but without public release or naming it GPT-6.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.6, not GPT-6, continuing incremental updates
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 on July 9, 2026, an incremental improvement rather than a generational leap to GPT-6, reinforcing market expectations that GPT-6 was not yet publicly available.
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5.6 in three tiers after government review
Following a 13-day limited preview, OpenAI released GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna publicly on July 9, 2026. This release expanded AI capabilities but remained within the GPT-5 family, further postponing any GPT-6 launch and influencing market sentiment toward a later release date.
OpenAI publicly launches GPT-5.6 in three tiers after government review
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%4%
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 (Sol, Terra, Luna) publicly on July 9, 2026, following a limited preview for government partners. This release continued the GPT-5 family cadence, further delaying expectations for a true GPT-6 generational leap.
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5.6 Sol, not GPT-6
August 7, 2026 plunges to 8%41%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.6 Sol publicly, continuing the incremental 5.x series rather than a full GPT-6 release, which led to market price declines reflecting reduced likelihood of a 2025 GPT-6 launch.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.6 Sol, not GPT-6, continuing incremental upgrades
August 31, 2026 plunges to 43%16%
On July 9, 2026, OpenAI released GPT-5.6 Sol, an incremental upgrade rather than a generational GPT-6 model. This release reinforced market expectations that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently, causing price declines in shorter-term outcomes.
White House denies approving OpenAI's GPT-5.6 rollout
The White House publicly denied reports that it had given regulatory approval for OpenAI's GPT-5.6 rollout, clarifying that deployment decisions rest entirely with companies. This contradicted earlier reports and highlighted the lack of formal government green light for the release.
GPT-5.6 rollout begins with gated access, not GPT-6 launch
Between June 26 and July 9, 2026, OpenAI rolled out GPT-5.6 with limited access, signaling continued incremental updates rather than a GPT-6 public release, influencing market expectations downward.
US government restricts GPT-5.6 preview to vetted partners
December 31, 2026 plunges to 65%18%
OpenAI previewed GPT-5.6 to a limited group under US government review, delaying public access. This new regulatory pattern affected market confidence in rapid public releases of frontier models, including GPT-6.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.6 in limited preview to government-approved partners
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%6%
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 (Sol, Terra, Luna) to a limited group of trusted partners under a 30-day federal safety review mandated by the Trump administration. This restricted access delayed public availability and influenced market sentiment about the timing of GPT-6.
OpenAI ships GPT-5.6 to government-approved organizations under new review framework
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 (Sol, Terra, Luna) initially to a limited group of government-approved organizations under a 30-day federal review, delaying broader public access. This cautious rollout reinforced market views that GPT-6 would not be released soon and that OpenAI was focusing on incremental improvements.
OpenAI previews GPT-5.6 to limited partners under government review
December 31, 2026 plunges to 66%18%
OpenAI released GPT-5.6 to a small group of vetted partners following a US government request for a 30-day safety review, delaying public access and causing market uncertainty about the timing of future releases including GPT-6.
OpenAI publicly releases GPT-5.5, not GPT-6
December 31, 2026 rises to 80%4%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.5, the model internally codenamed 'Spud', with significant improvements but explicitly did not brand it as GPT-6, signaling a continuation of incremental releases rather than a generational leap, impacting market expectations.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.5 with enhanced capabilities
OpenAI released GPT-5.5, internally codenamed Spud, offering significant improvements in agentic and computer-use capabilities, but did not label it GPT-6. This release shifted market expectations, signaling that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently and pushing the anticipated launch to later in 2026.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 instead of GPT-6, disappointing expectations
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%3%
OpenAI launched the 'Spud' model as GPT-5.5, not GPT-6, marking a point release within the GPT-5 family. This shifted market sentiment, as the awaited generational leap to GPT-6 did not materialize, leading to a price drop in GPT-6 release probability.
Leaks suggest GPT-6 (codename Spud) may release soon, but no official launch
Leaks in mid-April 2026 indicated that GPT-6, internally called Spud, might be released imminently, possibly around April 14. However, OpenAI did not officially announce or release GPT-6, and instead released GPT-5.5 later, leading to market uncertainty and tempered expectations for GPT-6's arrival.
Rumored GPT-6 launch date passes without OpenAI announcement
An unverified source suggested April 14, 2026 as GPT-6 launch, but the date passed with no official OpenAI announcement or public release, causing market doubts about imminent GPT-6 availability.
Unverified leak claims GPT-6 launch date with no official confirmation
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%4%
A rumored April 14 launch date for GPT-6 surfaced alongside speculation about a 'super app', but OpenAI did not confirm this, and the model released shortly after was GPT-5.5, not GPT-6, causing market uncertainty and price volatility.
Rumors circulate of GPT-6 release imminent in April 2026
Leaks suggested GPT-6, internally codenamed 'Spud,' might launch as early as April 14, 2026, raising market expectations temporarily despite no official confirmation from OpenAI.
No GPT-6 launch; OpenAI releases GPT-5.5 instead
December 31, 2026 surges to 86%23%
Despite earlier rumors of an April 14 GPT-6 launch, OpenAI released the model codenamed 'Spud' as GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, not as GPT-6. This indicated a shift to incremental versioning rather than a generational leap, causing market adjustments in expectations for GPT-6's timing.
OpenAI completes pre-training of next major model 'Spud', rumored as GPT-6
December 31, 2026 surges to 86%23%
OpenAI finished pre-training the model codenamed 'Spud' on March 24, 2026, with rumors suggesting an April 14 release. However, the model released was GPT-5.5, not GPT-6, leading to market adjustments and skepticism about an imminent GPT-6 launch.
Sam Altman states GPT-6 launch is 'a few weeks' away
September 30, 2026 surges to 70%16%
Sam Altman indicated that GPT-6's launch was imminent within weeks, briefly boosting market optimism, though no official release followed immediately, tempering expectations.
OpenAI completes pre-training of model codenamed 'Spud'
December 31, 2026 drops to 79%8%
OpenAI finished pre-training the model internally known as 'Spud', believed to be the next major model after GPT-5, signaling progress but without public release or naming it GPT-6. This milestone raised market expectations for a near-term launch but did not confirm public availability.
OpenAI completes pretraining of 'Spud' model, initially expected as GPT-6
December 31, 2026 drops to 79%8%
OpenAI finished pretraining the model codenamed 'Spud' at its Stargate data center, with CEO Sam Altman indicating a launch 'a few weeks' away. This model was widely anticipated to be GPT-6 but later released as GPT-5.5, affecting market expectations for GPT-6 timing.
Consensus forms around GPT-6 release in Q2 2026, with May or June likely
AI researchers and analysts converged on a Q2 2026 release window for GPT-6, increasing market expectations for a mid-2026 launch despite no official OpenAI announcement.
OpenAI announces retirement of older models including GPT-4o to consolidate resources for future models
December 31, 2026 drops to 80%5%
In late January 2026, OpenAI announced plans to retire several older models, including GPT-4o, to focus infrastructure and resources on GPT-5 and prepare for the next generation, implicitly indicating GPT-6 was still in development and not publicly available.
OpenAI announces retirement of GPT-4o and older models, no GPT-6 launch
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%3%
In late January 2026, OpenAI announced it would retire several older models including GPT-4o, but made no mention of GPT-6 being released or publicly accessible. This confirmed the absence of GPT-6 availability during the analysis window.
OpenAI confirms GPT-6 development but no 2025 release planned
December 31, 2026 rises to 89%2%
OpenAI officially confirmed GPT-6 is in development with a 2026 release window, dismissing earlier 2025 speculation and setting market expectations for a later launch.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hints at major AI upgrade in Q1 2026 without naming GPT-6
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
In early 2026, Sam Altman teased significant AI model improvements expected in Q1 2026 but avoided explicitly naming GPT-6, maintaining uncertainty about the exact timing of GPT-6's public release. This cautious communication kept market speculation alive but did not confirm a 2025 launch.
OpenAI reiterates no official GPT-6 announcement or release date
December 31, 2026 dips to 85%4%
Throughout early 2026, OpenAI and credible sources reiterated that GPT-6 had not been announced and no public release date was set, with the latest confirmed models being from the GPT-5 family. This sustained market confidence in a future GPT-6 release but confirmed it would not be available by the end of 2025.
OpenAI CEO hints at major AI model upgrade in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%7%
Sam Altman teased a significant upgrade in early 2026, fueling speculation about GPT-6 or a major successor model. However, no official GPT-6 release or public access was announced during this period, maintaining market uncertainty.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman teases major AI upgrade in Q1 2026
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%1%
In early January 2026, Sam Altman hinted at significant AI model improvements coming in Q1 2026 but stopped short of confirming GPT-6, maintaining market anticipation for a future release beyond 2025.
OpenAI bets big on audio AI with new model slated for early 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%3%
OpenAI announced a new audio AI model for early 2026, highlighting ongoing innovation within the GPT-5 ecosystem and hardware efforts, but no mention of GPT-6 release. This reinforced the market view that GPT-6 public availability would not occur before 2026.
OpenAI usage surges with GPT-4o and GPT-5, no GPT-6 announced
December 31, 2026 rises to 90%4%
By late December 2025, OpenAI's user base grew significantly due to GPT-4o and GPT-5 models, but no official announcement or public release of GPT-6 was made. This sustained market belief that GPT-6 was not yet publicly accessible.
OpenAI clarifies no GPT-6 release in 2025 amid rising rumors
In late December 2025, OpenAI reiterated that GPT-6 was not scheduled for release in 2025, directly countering false claims and rumors circulating online. This helped stabilize market expectations for a 2026 or later launch.
OpenAI launches ChatGPT app store to expand ecosystem
December 31, 2026 jumps to 86%6%
On December 18, 2025, OpenAI announced the launch of an app store within ChatGPT, enabling developers to submit and distribute applications. This move emphasized OpenAI's focus on enhancing the GPT-5 platform and ecosystem rather than releasing GPT-6, supporting market sentiment for a delayed GPT-6 launch.
OpenAI launches new image generation model GPT Image 1.5
December 31, 2026 rises to 87%3%
OpenAI announced GPT Image 1.5, an improved image generation model, as part of ongoing GPT-5 ecosystem upgrades. This release demonstrated OpenAI's focus on incremental improvements rather than a new GPT-6 launch, influencing market confidence in a 2025 GPT-6 release to decline.
OpenAI announces new image generation model GPT Image 1.5
December 31, 2026 jumps to 88%5%
On December 16, 2025, OpenAI launched GPT Image 1.5, enhancing image generation capabilities and signaling ongoing innovation within the GPT-5 ecosystem. This announcement, part of OpenAI's strategy during the 'code red' period, maintained market optimism about future AI developments but did not indicate any GPT-6 release.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 model amid competition with Google Gemini
December 31, 2026 jumps to 86%8%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2, its most advanced model yet, in December 2025, responding to competitive pressure from Google's Gemini model. This release reinforced the focus on GPT-5 rather than GPT-6, delaying expectations for GPT-6's public availability.
OpenAI announces GPT-5.2 as its most advanced AI model yet
December 31, 2026 jumps to 85%5%
On December 11, 2025, OpenAI publicly announced GPT-5.2, highlighting its superior performance for professional use. This reinforced the company's focus on GPT-5 improvements and delayed any GPT-6 release, impacting market confidence.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.2 model amid competition with Google
December 31, 2026 jumps to 80%8%
OpenAI released GPT-5.2 on December 11, 2025, targeting improved reasoning and coding capabilities to maintain leadership against Google's Gemini models. This release, accompanied by a 'code red' internal focus, increased market confidence in OpenAI's AI roadmap but did not include GPT-6, reinforcing expectations of a later GPT-6 release.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 amid competition from Google Gemini 3
December 31, 2026 jumps to 80%8%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2 in December 2025 as a major upgrade to GPT-5, responding to competitive pressure from Google's Gemini 3. This reinforced the focus on GPT-5 improvements rather than a new GPT-6 release, supporting market confidence that GPT-6 was not yet available.
OpenAI releases GPT-5.2 model amid competitive pressure from Google Gemini 3
December 31, 2026 surges to 80%17%
OpenAI launched GPT-5.2 on December 9, 2025, focusing on improving speed, accuracy, and reliability to counter Google’s Gemini 3 model. This release demonstrated OpenAI's commitment to refining GPT-5 rather than rushing GPT-6, reinforcing expectations that GPT-6 would not arrive in 2025.
OpenAI accelerates GPT-5.2 release amid competitive pressure
December 31, 2026 jumps to 78%6%
OpenAI released GPT-5.2 on December 9, 2025, earlier than initially planned due to pressure from competitors like Google. This update improved reasoning and coding capabilities but did not include GPT-6, reinforcing the focus on GPT-5 enhancements and delaying GPT-6 expectations.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman hints at GPT-6 focusing on memory and agentic features
Sam Altman publicly discussed GPT-6's development focus on memory and agentic capabilities, signaling progress but no release date, which initially raised market optimism about a near-term launch.
No official GPT-6 announcement from OpenAI as 2025 deadline approaches
As the December 31, 2025 deadline neared, OpenAI had not announced or released GPT-6, causing market uncertainty and a moderate price level around 51%. This lack of confirmation kept the market cautious about a 2025 public release.
OpenAI begins training GPT-6 model at Abilene Stargate data center
OpenAI CEO announced that training for what is expected to be GPT-6 started at the Abilene, Texas site, signaling progress but no public release yet. This news initially raised market optimism about a 2026 release.
OpenAI begins deploying GPT-5.1 to ChatGPT users worldwide
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%20%
On November 12, 2025, OpenAI started rolling out GPT-5.1 to paid subscribers, signaling continued focus on incremental improvements within the GPT-5 family rather than a new generation release. This deployment increased confidence that GPT-6 would not arrive imminently, influencing market prices upward for later release dates.
OpenAI focuses on expanding and optimizing GPT-5 ecosystem
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
OpenAI continued to release updates and improvements to GPT-5 models, including GPT-5.1 and GPT-5.2, signaling that the company was prioritizing refinement of existing models over launching GPT-6 in 2025.
OpenAI officially states GPT-6 will not be released in 2025
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%20%
In mid-October 2025, OpenAI definitively announced that GPT-6 would not be released in 2025, focusing instead on expanding and optimizing the GPT-5 ecosystem. This official statement clarified market rumors and set expectations that GPT-6 public availability would be at earliest in 2026, causing a significant market price increase from 51% to 71% by November 17.
Market price begins rising amid speculation on GPT-6 release in 2026
December 31, 2026 surges to 77%26%
Following OpenAI's official statement, market optimism grew that GPT-6 would launch in 2026, reflected in a price increase from 51% to 77% over the analysis period. This was driven by anticipation of a 2026 release window and ongoing AI advancements.
OpenAI launches GPT-5.1 with incremental improvements, signaling focus on GPT-5 ecosystem
December 31, 2026 surges to 71%20%
On November 12, 2025, OpenAI released GPT-5.1, an upgrade to GPT-5, emphasizing iterative improvements rather than a generational leap. This reinforced the understanding that GPT-6 was not imminent and that OpenAI was concentrating on refining GPT-5.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання