Trader consensus prices an 84.5% implied probability against NATO invoking Article 5 before year-end 2026, reflecting sustained deterrence amid regional tensions that have fallen short of the armed attack threshold. Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace on March 4 and 9 were intercepted by NATO defenses without triggering collective defense, as affirmed by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Ukraine conflict remains confined to a non-member state, while hybrid threats like cyberattacks stay below invocation levels. U.S. signals of winding down Iran operations and alliance strains under President Trump have not escalated to direct assaults on NATO territory, bolstering expectations of stability through 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNATO article 5 before 2027?
NATO article 5 before 2027?
$58,135 Обс.
$58,135 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$58,135 Обс.
$58,135 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices an 84.5% implied probability against NATO invoking Article 5 before year-end 2026, reflecting sustained deterrence amid regional tensions that have fallen short of the armed attack threshold. Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace on March 4 and 9 were intercepted by NATO defenses without triggering collective defense, as affirmed by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Ukraine conflict remains confined to a non-member state, while hybrid threats like cyberattacks stay below invocation levels. U.S. signals of winding down Iran operations and alliance strains under President Trump have not escalated to direct assaults on NATO territory, bolstering expectations of stability through 2026.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET
Обсяг
$58,135Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Trader consensus prices an 84.5% implied probability against NATO invoking Article 5 before year-end 2026, reflecting sustained deterrence amid regional tensions that have fallen short of the armed attack threshold. Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace on March 4 and 9 were intercepted by NATO defenses without triggering collective defense, as affirmed by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Ukraine conflict remains confined to a non-member state, while hybrid threats like cyberattacks stay below invocation levels. U.S. signals of winding down Iran operations and alliance strains under President Trump have not escalated to direct assaults on NATO territory, bolstering expectations of stability through 2026.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Обсяг
$58,135Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 84.5% implied probability against NATO invoking Article 5 before year-end 2026, reflecting sustained deterrence amid regional tensions that have fallen short of the armed attack threshold. Iranian missiles entering Turkish airspace on March 4 and 9 were intercepted by NATO defenses without triggering collective defense, as affirmed by U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Ukraine conflict remains confined to a non-member state, while hybrid threats like cyberattacks stay below invocation levels. U.S. signals of winding down Iran operations and alliance strains under President Trump have not escalated to direct assaults on NATO territory, bolstering expectations of stability through 2026.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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