Recent border tensions, including an alleged late-September 2026 exchange of fire involving U.S. Coast Guard personnel near the Texas-Tamaulipas frontier, have prompted joint deployments under Mexico’s “Operation Mirror,” with 500 Mexican troops, helicopters, and drones now active alongside U.S. forces. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has requested evidence of shots originating from Mexican territory, which her government states it has not detected, while reiterating opposition to any U.S. military intervention on sovereign soil. The Trump administration continues maritime strikes on suspected drug vessels in international waters and provides intelligence support for Mexican anti-cartel operations, such as the February 2026 action against a major cartel leader, but no confirmed U.S. strikes have occurred on Mexican territory. Trader consensus prices the probability of a qualifying U.S. strike by year-end in the low single digits, reflecting emphasis on bilateral security cooperation amid ongoing cartel-related pressures.