The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$30,403 Обс.
$30,403 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$30,403 Обс.
$30,403 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$16,483 Обс.
94%
Democratic Party
$13,920 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$30,403Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$30,403Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Missouri 4th congressional district's R+21 partisan voting index and incumbent Mark Alford's established position anchor the Republican Party's dominant 93.5% implied probability in this race. Alford secured the seat in 2022 and prevailed in the prior general election by more than 40 points, while Democratic primary contenders remain low-profile with limited fundraising or name recognition ahead of the August 4, 2026, primaries. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid Republican, reflecting structural electoral geography that favors the party in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus incorporates these fundamentals, though an unexpected national wave, redistricting ruling, or late primary upset could still narrow the gap before ballots are cast.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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