Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a strong position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid Republican. The district’s R+21 partisan voting index, rural-suburban composition, and Alford’s 71 percent victory in 2024 underpin the current trader consensus. Alford has built an early fundraising lead exceeding one million dollars with substantial cash reserves, while Democratic candidates remain low-profile and under-resourced following the March 31 filing deadline. No high-profile challengers have emerged in either primary, scheduled for August 4. A major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected Republican primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors keep such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMO-04 House Election Winner
MO-04 House Election Winner
$31,204 Обс.
$31,204 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
7%
$31,204 Обс.
$31,204 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$17,284 Обс.
93%
Democratic Party
$13,920 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a strong position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid Republican. The district’s R+21 partisan voting index, rural-suburban composition, and Alford’s 71 percent victory in 2024 underpin the current trader consensus. Alford has built an early fundraising lead exceeding one million dollars with substantial cash reserves, while Democratic candidates remain low-profile and under-resourced following the March 31 filing deadline. No high-profile challengers have emerged in either primary, scheduled for August 4. A major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected Republican primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors keep such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Обсяг
$31,204Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a strong position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid Republican. The district’s R+21 partisan voting index, rural-suburban composition, and Alford’s 71 percent victory in 2024 underpin the current trader consensus. Alford has built an early fundraising lead exceeding one million dollars with substantial cash reserves, while Democratic candidates remain low-profile and under-resourced following the March 31 filing deadline. No high-profile challengers have emerged in either primary, scheduled for August 4. A major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected Republican primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors keep such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$31,204Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mark Alford holds a strong position in Missouri’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, with all major forecasters rating the seat Solid Republican. The district’s R+21 partisan voting index, rural-suburban composition, and Alford’s 71 percent victory in 2024 underpin the current trader consensus. Alford has built an early fundraising lead exceeding one million dollars with substantial cash reserves, while Democratic candidates remain low-profile and under-resourced following the March 31 filing deadline. No high-profile challengers have emerged in either primary, scheduled for August 4. A major scandal involving the incumbent, an unexpected Republican primary upset, or an unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the margin, though structural factors keep such shifts improbable.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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