Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including stalled Iran-U.S. talks and risks to Strait of Hormuz flows, have driven recent WTI crude prices into the low-to-mid $90s, supporting the 71% market-implied odds for a June settlement above $84. Elevated risk premiums from supply disruption concerns and inventory draws have outweighed softening demand signals and longer-term oversupply forecasts from sources like the EIA. Traders are pricing in sustained volatility through month-end resolution, with key catalysts including diplomatic updates on ceasefires and weekly EIA stockpile data that could shift the balance toward lower buckets if tensions ease materially.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 72%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 6.0%
$63-$70 2.1%
$220,356 Обс.
$220,356 Обс.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
6%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
72%
>$84 72%
$77-$84 17%
$70-$77 6.0%
$63-$70 2.1%
$220,356 Обс.
$220,356 Обс.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
2%
$70-$77
6%
$77-$84
17%
>$84
72%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including stalled Iran-U.S. talks and risks to Strait of Hormuz flows, have driven recent WTI crude prices into the low-to-mid $90s, supporting the 71% market-implied odds for a June settlement above $84. Elevated risk premiums from supply disruption concerns and inventory draws have outweighed softening demand signals and longer-term oversupply forecasts from sources like the EIA. Traders are pricing in sustained volatility through month-end resolution, with key catalysts including diplomatic updates on ceasefires and weekly EIA stockpile data that could shift the balance toward lower buckets if tensions ease materially.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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