Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+8 partisan lean in the San Gabriel Valley suburbs including West Covina and Pomona. His 2024 general election victory by 59.7% over Republican Daniel Martinez, bolstered by over $111,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfs challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi—both Republicans who filed by the March 6 deadline and risk splitting the GOP vote in the June 2 top-two primary. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, but odds could shift via a Cisneros scandal, health issue, legal challenge, or national Republican midterm wave, though district structural advantages make upsets unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-31 House Election Winner
CA-31 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$867 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$0 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+8 partisan lean in the San Gabriel Valley suburbs including West Covina and Pomona. His 2024 general election victory by 59.7% over Republican Daniel Martinez, bolstered by over $111,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfs challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi—both Republicans who filed by the March 6 deadline and risk splitting the GOP vote in the June 2 top-two primary. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, but odds could shift via a Cisneros scandal, health issue, legal challenge, or national Republican midterm wave, though district structural advantages make upsets unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Обсяг
$867Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+8 partisan lean in the San Gabriel Valley suburbs including West Covina and Pomona. His 2024 general election victory by 59.7% over Republican Daniel Martinez, bolstered by over $111,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfs challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi—both Republicans who filed by the March 6 deadline and risk splitting the GOP vote in the June 2 top-two primary. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, but odds could shift via a Cisneros scandal, health issue, legal challenge, or national Republican midterm wave, though district structural advantages make upsets unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$867Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a commanding trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability to win California's 31st Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with a D+8 partisan lean in the San Gabriel Valley suburbs including West Covina and Pomona. His 2024 general election victory by 59.7% over Republican Daniel Martinez, bolstered by over $111,000 cash on hand as of late 2025, dwarfs challengers Eric Ching and Erskine Levi—both Republicans who filed by the March 6 deadline and risk splitting the GOP vote in the June 2 top-two primary. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, but odds could shift via a Cisneros scandal, health issue, legal challenge, or national Republican midterm wave, though district structural advantages make upsets unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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