Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's 28-year hold on California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic Party general election win at 91.5% implied probability. The district's reliable Democratic base, bolstered by Thompson's fundraising ($3 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand) and endorsements, contrasts with a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, likely propelling two Democrats—Thompson (99% Polymarket primary odds) and challenger Eric Jones (96%, $3.3 million individual donations)—to the November 3 ballot under the top-two system. Recent Jones fundraising surges signal primary competition but reinforce party dominance; odds could shift via GOP consolidation, Thompson scandal, or midterm national wave.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$0 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$297 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's 28-year hold on California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic Party general election win at 91.5% implied probability. The district's reliable Democratic base, bolstered by Thompson's fundraising ($3 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand) and endorsements, contrasts with a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, likely propelling two Democrats—Thompson (99% Polymarket primary odds) and challenger Eric Jones (96%, $3.3 million individual donations)—to the November 3 ballot under the top-two system. Recent Jones fundraising surges signal primary competition but reinforce party dominance; odds could shift via GOP consolidation, Thompson scandal, or midterm national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$297Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's 28-year hold on California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic Party general election win at 91.5% implied probability. The district's reliable Democratic base, bolstered by Thompson's fundraising ($3 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand) and endorsements, contrasts with a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, likely propelling two Democrats—Thompson (99% Polymarket primary odds) and challenger Eric Jones (96%, $3.3 million individual donations)—to the November 3 ballot under the top-two system. Recent Jones fundraising surges signal primary competition but reinforce party dominance; odds could shift via GOP consolidation, Thompson scandal, or midterm national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$297Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mike Thompson's 28-year hold on California's 4th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+17 Cook Partisan Voter Index, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic Party general election win at 91.5% implied probability. The district's reliable Democratic base, bolstered by Thompson's fundraising ($3 million raised, $2.6 million cash on hand) and endorsements, contrasts with a fragmented Republican primary field of six candidates, likely propelling two Democrats—Thompson (99% Polymarket primary odds) and challenger Eric Jones (96%, $3.3 million individual donations)—to the November 3 ballot under the top-two system. Recent Jones fundraising surges signal primary competition but reinforce party dominance; odds could shift via GOP consolidation, Thompson scandal, or midterm national wave.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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