Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson's entrenched position in California's strongly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reinforced by the district's 66.5% Democratic margin in 2024 and fragmented Republican primary field of six low-funded challengers unlikely to secure a top-two advancement on June 2. Recent escalation in the Democratic primary—including challenger Eric Jones' May 14 accusation of an illegal secret recording by Thompson's campaign—has intensified attacks but not dented overall party dominance, with both Democrats vastly outpacing GOP fundraising. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected GOP consolidation amid a national Republican midterm wave or a major scandal sidelining the primary victor ahead of the November 3 general.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-04 House Election Winner
CA-04 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$625 Обс.
92%
Republican Party
$302 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson's entrenched position in California's strongly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reinforced by the district's 66.5% Democratic margin in 2024 and fragmented Republican primary field of six low-funded challengers unlikely to secure a top-two advancement on June 2. Recent escalation in the Democratic primary—including challenger Eric Jones' May 14 accusation of an illegal secret recording by Thompson's campaign—has intensified attacks but not dented overall party dominance, with both Democrats vastly outpacing GOP fundraising. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected GOP consolidation amid a national Republican midterm wave or a major scandal sidelining the primary victor ahead of the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$927Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson's entrenched position in California's strongly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reinforced by the district's 66.5% Democratic margin in 2024 and fragmented Republican primary field of six low-funded challengers unlikely to secure a top-two advancement on June 2. Recent escalation in the Democratic primary—including challenger Eric Jones' May 14 accusation of an illegal secret recording by Thompson's campaign—has intensified attacks but not dented overall party dominance, with both Democrats vastly outpacing GOP fundraising. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected GOP consolidation amid a national Republican midterm wave or a major scandal sidelining the primary victor ahead of the November 3 general.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$927Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson's entrenched position in California's strongly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 Cook PVI) drives trader consensus toward a 91.5% implied probability for a Democratic House winner, reinforced by the district's 66.5% Democratic margin in 2024 and fragmented Republican primary field of six low-funded challengers unlikely to secure a top-two advancement on June 2. Recent escalation in the Democratic primary—including challenger Eric Jones' May 14 accusation of an illegal secret recording by Thompson's campaign—has intensified attacks but not dented overall party dominance, with both Democrats vastly outpacing GOP fundraising. Scenarios challenging this include unexpected GOP consolidation amid a national Republican midterm wave or a major scandal sidelining the primary victor ahead of the November 3 general.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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