The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s withdrawal to run for governor, has shifted trader consensus toward the Democratic nominee at 69.5 percent. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up in a district with a narrow partisan lean. Democratic primary contenders, including Marlene Galán-Woods who received DCCC Red to Blue support, face a July 21 contest against Republican frontrunner Joseph Chaplik in a field viewed as competitive. Midterm dynamics under the current administration, combined with the absence of an incumbent advantage, underpin the current implied probability gap ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоAZ-01 House Election Winner
AZ-01 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
70%
Republican Party
29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$175 Обс.
70%
Republican Party
$316 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s withdrawal to run for governor, has shifted trader consensus toward the Democratic nominee at 69.5 percent. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up in a district with a narrow partisan lean. Democratic primary contenders, including Marlene Galán-Woods who received DCCC Red to Blue support, face a July 21 contest against Republican frontrunner Joseph Chaplik in a field viewed as competitive. Midterm dynamics under the current administration, combined with the absence of an incumbent advantage, underpin the current implied probability gap ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
Обсяг
$490Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s withdrawal to run for governor, has shifted trader consensus toward the Democratic nominee at 69.5 percent. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up in a district with a narrow partisan lean. Democratic primary contenders, including Marlene Galán-Woods who received DCCC Red to Blue support, face a July 21 contest against Republican frontrunner Joseph Chaplik in a field viewed as competitive. Midterm dynamics under the current administration, combined with the absence of an incumbent advantage, underpin the current implied probability gap ahead of the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$490Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, created by longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert’s withdrawal to run for governor, has shifted trader consensus toward the Democratic nominee at 69.5 percent. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up in a district with a narrow partisan lean. Democratic primary contenders, including Marlene Galán-Woods who received DCCC Red to Blue support, face a July 21 contest against Republican frontrunner Joseph Chaplik in a field viewed as competitive. Midterm dynamics under the current administration, combined with the absence of an incumbent advantage, underpin the current implied probability gap ahead of the November 2026 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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