Aaron Flint holds a clear edge in the MT-01 House race due to the district’s Republican lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and Donald Trump’s 2024 margin exceeding 10 points, along with his own Trump endorsement and selection as Ryan Zinke’s successor. Recent late-September polling shows the candidates nearly tied, with Flint at 45.9% and Sam Forstag at 45.4% in one survey, underscoring the seat’s competitiveness in western Montana counties. Forstag’s background as a smokejumper and union leader, plus endorsements from figures across the spectrum, has kept the contest close, but Flint’s campaign has highlighted Forstag’s prior lobbying work to reinforce Republican advantages. With the November 3 election approaching, trader pricing aligns with the district’s structural tilt favoring the Republican nominee.