The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s March retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana’s 1st district, where recent June 2 primaries nominated Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag. Trader consensus reflected in the narrow spread captures the district’s modest Republican lean, polling that shows single-digit margins between the nominees, and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Key variables that could widen the gap include candidate fundraising, turnout in western Montana counties, and any national midterm shifts affecting down-ballot races before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMT-01 House Election Winner
MT-01 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
43%
Democratic Party
47%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 4, 2026
Republican Party
$1,011 Обс.
43%
Democratic Party
$400 Обс.
47%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s March retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana’s 1st district, where recent June 2 primaries nominated Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag. Trader consensus reflected in the narrow spread captures the district’s modest Republican lean, polling that shows single-digit margins between the nominees, and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Key variables that could widen the gap include candidate fundraising, turnout in western Montana counties, and any national midterm shifts affecting down-ballot races before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,410Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s March retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana’s 1st district, where recent June 2 primaries nominated Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag. Trader consensus reflected in the narrow spread captures the district’s modest Republican lean, polling that shows single-digit margins between the nominees, and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Key variables that could widen the gap include candidate fundraising, turnout in western Montana counties, and any national midterm shifts affecting down-ballot races before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$1,410Дата завершення
Nov 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat created by Ryan Zinke’s March retirement has produced a competitive general election matchup in Montana’s 1st district, where recent June 2 primaries nominated Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag. Trader consensus reflected in the narrow spread captures the district’s modest Republican lean, polling that shows single-digit margins between the nominees, and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Key variables that could widen the gap include candidate fundraising, turnout in western Montana counties, and any national midterm shifts affecting down-ballot races before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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