Chris Pappas holds a commanding lead in New Hampshire’s Democratic Senate primary due to his incumbency as a U.S. representative, substantial fundraising edge, and endorsements from retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, former Vice President Kamala Harris, and other party figures. Recent polls, including a University of New Hampshire survey showing a 13-point advantage and others with wider margins, reflect his strength among moderates and older voters ahead of the September 8 vote. Progressive challenger Karishma Manzur has narrowed the gap through grassroots efforts and criticism of Pappas’s foreign policy record but trails significantly in overall support. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome include unusually high turnout among younger or progressive voters or late-breaking developments in the final days before ballots are cast.