Polymarket traders assign a 31.5% implied probability to an S&P 500 close below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the plurality view amid closely contested odds—reflecting caution over elevated forward P/E ratios around 21 and resurgent March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, which has dimmed rate-cut expectations with Fed funds steady at 3.6%. Recent resilience shone through with the index rallying to record highs near 7,125 last week on strong Q1 earnings beats projecting 17-18% growth for calendar 2026, yet ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict risks amplify downside scenarios. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation trajectory versus earnings momentum; upcoming May FOMC meeting and April CPI release could sway sentiment toward $7,000-$7,500 (23%) or lower bins.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · GüncellendiS&P 500 (SPX) 2026 'nın sonunda ne kapanacak?
S&P 500 (SPX) 2026 'nın sonunda ne kapanacak?
$6.000'in altında 32%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.500-$7.000 13%
$7.500-$8.000 13%
$19,269 Hac.
$19,269 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$6.000'in altında
32%
$6.000-$6.500
19%
$6.500-$7.000
13%
$7.000-$7.500
23%
$7.500-$8.000
13%
>$8.000
12%
$6.000'in altında 32%
$7.000-$7.500 23%
$6.500-$7.000 13%
$7.500-$8.000 13%
$19,269 Hac.
$19,269 Hac.
31 Ara 2026
$6.000'in altında
$11,578 Hac.
32%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,351 Hac.
19%
$6.500-$7.000
$1,969 Hac.
13%
$7.000-$7.500
$923 Hac.
23%
$7.500-$8.000
$1,654 Hac.
13%
>$8.000
$1,794 Hac.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a 31.5% implied probability to an S&P 500 close below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the plurality view amid closely contested odds—reflecting caution over elevated forward P/E ratios around 21 and resurgent March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, which has dimmed rate-cut expectations with Fed funds steady at 3.6%. Recent resilience shone through with the index rallying to record highs near 7,125 last week on strong Q1 earnings beats projecting 17-18% growth for calendar 2026, yet ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict risks amplify downside scenarios. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation trajectory versus earnings momentum; upcoming May FOMC meeting and April CPI release could sway sentiment toward $7,000-$7,500 (23%) or lower bins.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Hacim
$19,269Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders assign a 31.5% implied probability to an S&P 500 close below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the plurality view amid closely contested odds—reflecting caution over elevated forward P/E ratios around 21 and resurgent March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, which has dimmed rate-cut expectations with Fed funds steady at 3.6%. Recent resilience shone through with the index rallying to record highs near 7,125 last week on strong Q1 earnings beats projecting 17-18% growth for calendar 2026, yet ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict risks amplify downside scenarios. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation trajectory versus earnings momentum; upcoming May FOMC meeting and April CPI release could sway sentiment toward $7,000-$7,500 (23%) or lower bins.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Hacim
$19,269Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 31.5% implied probability to an S&P 500 close below $6,000 by year-end 2026—the plurality view amid closely contested odds—reflecting caution over elevated forward P/E ratios around 21 and resurgent March CPI inflation at 3.3% year-over-year, which has dimmed rate-cut expectations with Fed funds steady at 3.6%. Recent resilience shone through with the index rallying to record highs near 7,125 last week on strong Q1 earnings beats projecting 17-18% growth for calendar 2026, yet ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict risks amplify downside scenarios. Competitive dynamics hinge on inflation trajectory versus earnings momentum; upcoming May FOMC meeting and April CPI release could sway sentiment toward $7,000-$7,500 (23%) or lower bins.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
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