Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with a 50.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 43.3% for above $36,000, amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil shocks and persistent inflation pressures. The index rallied 6.8% last week to close at 26,672 on April 17—rebounding sharply from sub-$24,000 lows earlier in April triggered by spiking Treasury yields and former President Trump's Iran comments—but Federal Reserve March minutes revealed growing openness to rate hikes if war-related inflation endures, tempering bullish AI-driven earnings momentum from megacaps like Nvidia and Microsoft. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC decision, Q1 earnings revisions, and labor data influencing the Fed funds path versus current 3.5%-3.75% range.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi$30,500-$33,000 44%
$25,000-$26,500 43%
$26,500-$28,500 43%
$33,000-$36,000 43%
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
<$23,500
49%
$23,500-$25,000
-
$25,000-$26,500
43%
$26,500-$28,500
43%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
44%
$33,000-$36,000
43%
>$36,000
43%
$30,500-$33,000 44%
$25,000-$26,500 43%
$26,500-$28,500 43%
$33,000-$36,000 43%
YENİ
YENİ
31 Ara 2026
<$23,500
$0 Hac.
49%
$23,500-$25,000
$10 Hac.
-
$25,000-$26,500
$0 Hac.
43%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Hac.
43%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 Hac.
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 Hac.
44%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 Hac.
43%
>$36,000
$42 Hac.
43%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with a 50.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 43.3% for above $36,000, amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil shocks and persistent inflation pressures. The index rallied 6.8% last week to close at 26,672 on April 17—rebounding sharply from sub-$24,000 lows earlier in April triggered by spiking Treasury yields and former President Trump's Iran comments—but Federal Reserve March minutes revealed growing openness to rate hikes if war-related inflation endures, tempering bullish AI-driven earnings momentum from megacaps like Nvidia and Microsoft. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC decision, Q1 earnings revisions, and labor data influencing the Fed funds path versus current 3.5%-3.75% range.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Piyasa Açıldı: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Hacim
$52Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with a 50.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 43.3% for above $36,000, amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil shocks and persistent inflation pressures. The index rallied 6.8% last week to close at 26,672 on April 17—rebounding sharply from sub-$24,000 lows earlier in April triggered by spiking Treasury yields and former President Trump's Iran comments—but Federal Reserve March minutes revealed growing openness to rate hikes if war-related inflation endures, tempering bullish AI-driven earnings momentum from megacaps like Nvidia and Microsoft. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC decision, Q1 earnings revisions, and labor data influencing the Fed funds path versus current 3.5%-3.75% range.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Hacim
$52Bitiş Tarihi
31 Ara 2026Piyasa Açıldı
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETÇözümleme Kaynağı
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split for the Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with a 50.5% implied probability for below $23,500 edging out 43.3% for above $36,000, amid heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions driving oil shocks and persistent inflation pressures. The index rallied 6.8% last week to close at 26,672 on April 17—rebounding sharply from sub-$24,000 lows earlier in April triggered by spiking Treasury yields and former President Trump's Iran comments—but Federal Reserve March minutes revealed growing openness to rate hikes if war-related inflation endures, tempering bullish AI-driven earnings momentum from megacaps like Nvidia and Microsoft. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC decision, Q1 earnings revisions, and labor data influencing the Fed funds path versus current 3.5%-3.75% range.
Polymarket verilerine atıfta bulunan deneysel AI tarafından oluşturulmuş özet. Bu bir işlem tavsiyesi değildir ve bu piyasanın nasıl çözümlendiğinde hiçbir rolü yoktur. · Güncellendi
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Harici bağlantılara dikkat edin.
Sıkça Sorulan Sorular