Trader consensus prices "No" at 87%, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on NATO territory sufficient to trigger Article 5's collective defense clause since its sole prior invocation after 9/11. Recent hybrid threats from Russia—such as sabotage and drone incursions targeting Poland and the Baltic states' eastern flank—have prompted heightened NATO deterrence measures, including troop rotations and a May 8 Polish security conference affirming alliance unity amid U.S. burden-sharing debates, but fall short of the consensus threshold for formal activation. Ongoing Ukraine conflict ties down Russian forces without spillover, while U.S. congressional resolutions and European spending pledges bolster credibility, leaving scant room for escalation before year-end despite Trump-era rhetoric on alliance commitments.