**Erdoğan’s continued hold on power through at least the scheduled 2028 presidential election shapes trader views on any “out by” timeline.** Senior advisers and Justice Minister statements in September 2026 confirmed plans for him to seek what they describe as a final term, with a parliamentary vote potentially moving the contest to April 16, 2028, to activate a constitutional exception allowing a third term. The ruling AKP-MHP bloc holds 326 of 600 seats and needs 360 votes for an early election call. The main opposition remains fragmented after court actions removed CHP leadership and split the party, while leading rival Ekrem İmamoğlu has been imprisoned since March 2025 on corruption and other charges that could bar his candidacy. Recent polls show AKP ahead but with support in the low 30s amid persistent inflation and economic pressure. Reports of Erdoğan’s health and family succession maneuvering exist, yet no immediate departure signals have emerged.