Erdoğan’s current presidential term under Turkey’s constitution extends through 2028, with the next scheduled national election no later than May 2028 and no impeachment, recall, or other formal removal process active before the end of 2026. The ruling Justice and Development Party maintains parliamentary control and institutional leverage, while recent developments focus on longer-term maneuvers such as potential constitutional amendments or snap elections timed for 2027 to address term limits rather than any immediate exit. Opposition challenges and economic pressures have not produced verifiable triggers for resignation, health-related departure, or early ouster within the market’s timeframe, supporting the strong trader consensus against an exit by December 31, 2026.