Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area headline and core inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Economist surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely in June, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 86.5% trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, as the Governing Council follows a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to easing. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data remain the main factors that could still open the door to cuts within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$28,250 Vol.
$28,250 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area headline and core inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Economist surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely in June, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 86.5% trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, as the Governing Council follows a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to easing. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data remain the main factors that could still open the door to cuts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$28,250Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area headline and core inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Economist surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely in June, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 86.5% trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, as the Governing Council follows a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to easing. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data remain the main factors that could still open the door to cuts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,250Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Middle East geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have driven energy price spikes that elevated euro-area headline and core inflation, prompting the ECB to hold its deposit facility rate at 2.00% in late April while signaling data-dependent readiness for tightening. Economist surveys from Reuters and Bloomberg now assign high odds to at least one 25-basis-point hike in 2026, most likely in June, to address second-round effects amid resilient labor markets and firmer core readings. This environment supports the 86.5% trader consensus against any rate cut by year-end, as the Governing Council follows a meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to easing. A rapid conflict de-escalation sharply lowering energy costs or unexpectedly soft inflation data remain the main factors that could still open the door to cuts within the resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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