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icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

icon for Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Canada's population Up or Down this year?

Up

53% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO

Up

53% tsansa
Polymarket
BAGO
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government has tightened immigration rules through its 2026–2028 levels plan, cutting new temporary resident targets by over 40 percent and stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually. These measures seek to lower the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent of the total population by 2027, producing net outflows that offset permanent inflows. Official projections and preliminary Statistics Canada data already show a 0.2 percent population drop in late 2025, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasting flat growth for 2026 overall. Traders assign a 60.5 percent probability to a year-end decline because these policy shifts represent the dominant near-term driver of demographic change in a country where natural increase remains minimal.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,488
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 30, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Canada's federal government has tightened immigration rules through its 2026–2028 levels plan, cutting new temporary resident targets by over 40 percent and stabilizing permanent resident admissions at 380,000 annually. These measures seek to lower the non-permanent resident share below 5 percent of the total population by 2027, producing net outflows that offset permanent inflows. Official projections and preliminary Statistics Canada data already show a 0.2 percent population drop in late 2025, with the Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasting flat growth for 2026 overall. Traders assign a 60.5 percent probability to a year-end decline because these policy shifts represent the dominant near-term driver of demographic change in a country where natural increase remains minimal.

This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.

If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,488
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Apr 30, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Up" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is greater than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025. If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start). Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" ay isang araw-araw prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares kung ang presyo ng Canada's population Up or Down this year? ay magtatapos na mas mataas ("Up") o mas mababa ("Down") kaysa sa opening price nito sa loob ng araw-araw window na tinukoy sa titulo. Ang kasalukuyang market probability ay 61% para sa "Down." Ang presyong 61% ay nangangahulugang kolektibong binibigyan ng market ng 61% na tsansa ang outcome na iyon. Nag-a-update ang mga presyo sa real-time habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa live na mga pagbabago ng presyo ng Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay maaaring i-redeem ng $1 bawat isa kapag nag-resolve ang market.

"Canada's population Up or Down this year?" ay isang aktibong short-term market sa Polymarket. Maaaring mabilis na mag-accumulate ang trading volume habang umuusad ang araw-araw window — pumasok agad para tumulong sa pagtakda ng odds bago magsara ang window na ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Canada's population Up or Down this year?," magdesisyon kung naniniwala ka na ang presyo ng Canada's population Up or Down this year? sa tanghali ET ng April 29 ay magiging mas mataas ("Up") o mas mababa ("Down") kaysa sa presyo ng Canada's population Up or Down this year? sa tanghali ET ng January 27. Bumili ng "Up" kung sa tingin mo tataas ang presyo araw-araw, o "Down" kung sa tingin mo bababa. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome sa resolution, nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1.00. Kung mali, ang mga share ay nagkakahalaga ng $0.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" ay 61% para sa "Down," na nangangahulugang ang Polymarket crowd ay kasalukuyang nagbibigay ng 61% na tsansa na ang presyo ng Canada's population Up or Down this year? ay magtatapos na down sa araw-araw window na ito. Ang mga odds na ito ay nag-a-update sa real-time habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa live na price data ng Canada's population Up or Down this year?. Sa buong araw, ang odds ay sumasalamin sa nagbabagong sentiment habang nagbubukas ang price action ng araw. Bumalik nang madalas o mag-trade ngayon bago magsara ang window.

Ang "Canada's population Up or Down this year?" market ay nire-resolve batay sa paghahambing ng presyo ng Canada's population Up or Down this year? sa tanghali ET ng April 29 kumpara sa tanghali ET ng January 27, gamit ang Binance CANADAS-POPULATION/USDT 1-minute candle close prices. Kung mas mataas ang presyo sa April 29 sa tanghali, ang outcome ay "Up"; kung mas mababa, "Down"; kung pantay, ang market ay nire-resolve 50-50. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria at data source sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito.